Uncategorized, Weekly Update

2017 Has Been Historic for Its Lack of Concern

Published December 22, 2017


2017 feels like an extraordinarily good year for the stock market. While it is above average, the market had a substantially better year only four years ago, and another 20%+ gain four years prior to that. What differentiates this year is the extreme calm that investors felt all year long. For only the second time in the past 35+ years, the WORST decline the stock market encountered was a measly -3%. Many stocks move that much in a day. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Stocks Outside the U.S. Blast Off

Published December 15, 2017


Outside the U.S. the post-financial crisis rally has been a halting affair, occurring in two major steps higher. Unlike the U.S., each step was greeted with some misgivings as Europe wrestled with its new currency and European Union financial structure while China’s economy digested a massive wave of growth in the prior decade. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

This Is Not the Dot Com Boom All over Again

Published November 24, 2017


Our focus index the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been on fire this year! The article below from the Wall Street Journal notes that unlike the 2000 dot com boom, this tech-fueled rally is built on solid earnings growth. We also note that this year is the first time tech has led the market since the brief post-crash 2003 recovery rally. Here is Riva Gold’s article from this week’s WSJ: (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Where the Stock Market Might Be Headed Next

Published November 17, 2017


We thought the outlook below from Delta Investments provided a good overview of the factors supporting the stock market. Enjoy!

Our 2018 S&P 500 Index outlook is up. If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.

The following ten factors support our 2018 bullish investment thesis: (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Tech Takeover Speculation – Apple Taking Over Netflix

Published November 10, 2017


Given that our investment focus is on market indexes and sectors, we don’t talk much about individual companies in our weekly blog. However, this opinion piece from noted investment industry figure Barry Ritholtz published on Bloomberg’s website, showcases two of tech’s (and the Nasdaq’s) largest and most influential companies. We thought you might find it interesting as the market grinds ever-higher. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Is GE the Canary in the Coal Mine?

Published October 27, 2017


Investors are always wary of the “this time it’s different” mantra. Just before the housing crisis which led to the financial crisis in 2008, we were told that housing had entered a different phase, one where it somehow made sense that people were buying 2 and 3 houses on speculation. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Bullish Developments for Stocks and the U.S. Dollar

Published October 20, 2017


We took a couple of charts from a recent presentation made by technical analyst J.C. Parets and his firm All Star Charts to highlight a couple of longer-term trends that you might find interesting.

First, the U.S. dollar has been falling all year as the expected rise in interest rates has not really played out and non-U.S. economies have gained strength. Technically, this drop in the dollar is very near a point of key support, one where we would expect the dollar to stop falling and return to a multi-year uptrend. (more…)