Published June 21, 2019
This week, we offer not a single particular point, but instead a couple of market observations. (more…)
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Stocks treading water
Published June 14, 2019
Timeframe matters when we are analyzing markets. While we might hear that stocks are in the midst of a strong rally, a look at the broader stock market over a wider timeframe says that most stocks are treading water.
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Economic Data Weakening Here and There
Published June 7, 2019
After struggling for the month of May, this week the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) accelerated its momentum downward and took a decidedly bearish turn. The stock market trades on perceptions for the future health of the economy and corporate earnings. Those perceptions have been skewed negative by the battles in trade. However, the stock market is beginning to get more and more data suggesting that weakness ahead is more than just a result of a change in perception. (more…)
Smallcap Stocks Fail to Find Buyers
Published May 31, 2019
At the beginning of this month of May we concluded our weekly blog with the following:
“Were smaller, riskier stocks to find strength, it would be a real boost to the market’s rally effort as there is clearly some “wall of worry” built into this market.”
By the end of the month, the market’s answer was clear: there would be no boost from small and midcap stocks. (more…)
Trade Threats Rise as the Global Economy Softens
Published May 24, 2019
Stocks have spent a third consecutive week wrestling with the implications of a longer trade standoff with China. The excerpt below from Schwab’s research team outlines some of the reasons why the market has reacted badly to the recent seeming deterioration in trade talks. (more…)
Caught Between Trade Fears and Earnings Reality
Published May 17, 2019
This week was a perfect example of the current market environment. Monday’s plunge in the stock market continued the market’s negative reaction to recent trade talk news, as talks with China looked to experience a serious setback. (more…)
Investors Are Reminded How Critical the China Trade Deal Is
Published May 10, 2019
After weeks of calm, stocks were rattled this week as the expected trade agreement between the U.S. and China appeared to encounter serious pressure. Entering the month of May, the Trump Administration was encouraging investors with comments that the agreement was in the “final laps” with “productive” meetings being held. However, this week the tone out of the Administration changed dramatically. (more…)
Fuel for the Next Leg of the Rally
Published May 3, 2019
Recent headlines tell us the “stock market” has returned to record high levels. We put that in quotes because closer observers of the broader universe of stocks will tell you that it’s predominantly the larger companies whose stocks have moved higher. The indexes of midcap and smallcap companies remain well below their highs of last September. (more…)
Historical Market Returns Suggest a Coming Period of Turbulence
Published April 26, 2019
As much as commentators try to explain stock price fluctuations in terms of economics, earnings, and other fundamental drivers, there is an equal helping of pure human emotion involved – the “fear and greed” factor. (more…)
International Stocks Rebound as a Key Recession Indicator Signals Caution
Published April 19, 2019
Stock markets outside the U.S. have joined U.S. stocks in bouncing back strongly since Christmas Eve (see chart below). However, as the following commentary from Schwab discusses, there are reasons for concern about this rally. (more…)