Published March 15, 2019
This week the stock market appears to have passed the first test of the strong rebound. The chart below tracks the market over the past two years from the hefty uptrend of 2017 through the turbulence of 2018. (more…)
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Markets Take a Breather
Published March 8, 2019
After a 10-week rebound since the Christmas Eve bust, stock bulls have paused to take a break. They’ve done so right at 2800 on the S&P 500 and, coincidentally(?), just after recovering that December swoon (and hardly a penny more). In other words, the fear that gripped markets in December proved unfounded in January/February. We are now back to considering the first market drop in October that kick-started an ugly period for stocks and many calls of a new bear market. Will stocks recover the October decline as well? (more…)
Does the Strong Start to the Year Actually Matter?
Published March 1, 2019
Article after article discusses this “best start” for the stock market in umpteen years. Most of those pieces make little or no mention of the “worst ever” December that preceded the “best start”. (more…)
Earnings Expectations Are Still Declining
Published February 22, 2019
A recent report from financial data provider Factset offers interesting information regarding corporate earnings. Below are snapshots from that report along with our comments. (more…)
The IPO Frenzy to Come
Published February 15, 2019
Investors often forget that markets are finite in their resources available, and investors must choose where to place their money. Sometimes the money flows into stocks, sometimes into bonds, etc. It’s simple supply and demand. We noted recently how much money was flowing INTO bonds despite a strong stock market rebound. (more…)
Where the Market Stands Now
Published February 8, 2019
Our FPResearch website publishes a couple of composite Broad Market Indicators. These composites include some 20 component indicators to provide a pictorial view of market health. While the short to intermediate term indicators have recovered and look strong, the substantial damage caused to the market in the October-December selloff is reflected in the more cautious long-term reading. (more…)
Bonds Roar Higher
Published February 1, 2019
The dark days of December are so last year, aren’t they? A crisis of liquidity engulfed the riskier parts of the bond market leading prices to plunge. That all is forgotten now. (more…)
Trade Tariffs Hold the Key for Stocks
Published January 25, 2019
Stocks have rebounded sharply from the Christmas Eve nightmare though plenty of fog remains for investors. You will recall that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell 12% over seven trading sessions in mid-December as thin holiday trading combined with rampant fears conspired to drive stocks downward. That plunge culminated in a 2%+ fall on Christmas Eve. (more…)
Markets Will Continue to Encounter Lots of Fog
Published January 18, 2019
We find the folks at Schwab, led by Liz Ann Sonders, to provide a good overview of the intersection of markets and the economy. Below is their most recent analysis – a bit lengthy. But we think it’s worthwhile. Enjoy! (more…)
Bank Loans as an Expression of Market Fears
Published January 11, 2019
While the market’s swoon in October and December was sparked by concerns of a global economic slowdown and fears that the Federal Reserve would aggressively raise interest rates thus exacerbating the slowdown, there is another worry that played into the selloff. (more…)
