Author: fdacic

Weekly Update

Interest Rates: Getting Back to Normal


Published February 26, 2021

 

Interest rates have ripped higher along with stocks as expectations for a very strong post-pandemic economic recovery gain traction. This week, however, that rise in rates appeared to reach a point where concerns crept in. Stocks tumbled as investors worried that the rise in rates was too high, too fast. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Roaring Bull Market in the Riskiest of Asset Classes


Published February 12, 2021

It is no secret that money is chasing stocks, creating what some are calling ‘bubbles’ of valuation here and there (if not in the market overall). We talked last week about how valuation doesn’t really matter, supply and demand does. Right now, investors see no reason to hold back on the demand piece. We find no better example of this behavior than the massive (and sharply quick) run-up in shares of the most risky of companies, broadly speaking. That would be the smallest companies in the market – the microcaps. (more…)

Weekly Update

Reminder: The Market Is All About Supply and Demand, Nothing Else


Published February 5, 2021

That’s right folks, any market: stocks, bonds, commodities, milk, diapers, et al. is ONLY about supply and demand. Sure, we try to make ourselves feel better by assigning formulas and trying to figure out some “fair value” based on historical data. But it’s a complete wild west guess, right? Take the price-earnings ratio, so frequently used to peg the stock market as being “expensive” or “cheap”. This ratio has run anywhere from 10 to 100, settling in a typical range of 15-20 or so. Still, it’s a bell(ish) curve with a very wide range of possible values. That typical range does not say anything about the investing or economic environment of the times. (more…)

Weekly Update

An Overview of Current Economic and Market Conditions


Published January 29, 2021

This has been the rare week where investment news has become very mainstream. The frenzied trading in Gamestop and other heavily-shorted stocks has created all kinds of buzz. There are plenty of articles discussing the phenomenon of the armies of individual investors going after big-money short sellers. Once the sparks stop flying and the dust settles, there will be some big winners and losers from this market aberration. Meanwhile, the broader markets roll on, mostly unaffected by the turmoil in that handful of stocks. (more…)

Weekly Update

2020 – a Rollercoaster Ride Ends Well for the Stock Market


Published January 1, 2021

 

Below is a good recap of the year in investing excerpted from the Wall Street Journal. Our model-driven, long-short approach to investing responded well, protecting us from the worst of the market selloff while participating well in the rebound. We appreciate you, our family of subscribers, and wish you a healthy and prosperous 2021! (more…)

Weekly Update

Are Stock Markets Too Richly Valued Now?


Published December 25, 2020

Investors cannot help but be amazed by the stock market’s performance this year. What began as a promising continuation of a decade-long bull run quickly turned into one of the sharpest plunges in market history as Covid-19 upended economies worldwide. Shocking as that plunge was, the subsequent rebound was even more surprising, with stocks going on to record highs despite unemployment remaining extremely high and other economic indicators remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels. The record level of stock prices in the face of still-weak economic data suggests a stock market that might have run too far too fast. A couple of notable writers on investment topics in major publications have recent tackled that topic, concluding that stocks are indeed at extremely rich prices. (more…)