Published October 23, 2020
With the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index as the focus of our models, we spend a lot of time talking about that index and its major components – e.g. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, et al. Another trend in the market, and one that might be poised to outperform the Nasdaq, is the old line industrials. (more…)
Published October 16, 2020
The stock market has a pretty good track record for determining who will win a presidential election. The indicator looks at the market return over the three months leading up to the election. A positive return suggests a win for the incumbent. The data below, going back to 1928, shows an 87% success rate for the stock market in picking the ultimate election victor.
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Published October 9, 2020
Over the past few days, we have seen the rally of the past couple of weeks gain some new followers. Specifically, small and midcap stocks, long the laggards in the market, have seen the growth components of their indexes break out to new highs. (more…)
Published October 2, 2020
This week, our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) appeared to resume the uptrend that was halted through much of September. Let’s examine the chart below to see how this market correction played out. The square around the price bars, and also around the volume bars, show the market selloff (declining prices in heavy volume). The -14% price decline from the selloff basically negated the sharp August runup, a runup which had most market watchers concerned about the “froth” in market valuation. (more…)
Published September 25, 2020
After a summer spent surging higher on economy re-openings and optimism for growth, stocks have entered a typical September slump. While we could just chalk it up to typical pre-election caution, there are fundamental factors that have emerged to challenge the market perhaps more seriously than usual. (more…)
Published September 18, 2020
A couple of notes from widely read investment blogger Josh Brown provide reason to be a little less than thrilled with the Fed’s current language, while also reminding investors that the sharp rally in our favored Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has some strong fundamental support, something lacking in prior QQQ rallies. (more…)
Published September 11, 2020
The recent stock market pullback has thus far basically reversed the August surge. Our focused Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped to its 50-day moving average for the first time since the rally began in April. The rally in August (blue arrow below) has been, in part, attributed to a multi-billion $ options bet made by tech investor Softbank. (more…)
Published September 4, 2020
This week’s moves in the Nasdaq 100 index (trading symbol: QQQ) offer a textbook case of the emotion that influences price movement. For days on end, the QQQ rose (blue line below), with the leading FANGMA stocks trading as if there were no price too high. Investors were fearful of missing out on the strong advance. (more…)
Published August 28, 2020
The article below from Delta Investment points to the gathering economic and market strength internationally. As noted before, a broader market is a stronger market. The more sectors and markets participate in the market’s rise, the better. For now, our favored Nasdaq index (QQQ) continues to lead the way, powered by the FANGMA trade. (more…)
Published August 21, 2020
As we head toward September and October, it’s worthwhile to remind ourselves that these months can be dangerous for stock investors. That’s particularly true in an election year. (more…)