Published June 5, 2026
As investors, we scour the news for clues how our investments might be affected by changes in the economy, geopolitics, et al. What we cannot see are the flows of money around the global markets. All we can see are the resultant prices of stocks, bonds and commodities as money flows in and out. Those price movements are what drive our models and, thus, our investment decisions in the short-to-medium term (where our models operate). (more…)
Published May 29, 2026
We found the article below from Bank of America’s equity research team to have an interesting perspective on the market’s AI mania of late.
“The artificial intelligence-fueled rally is often compared with other capital expenditure-led build-outs, like that of the internet during the dot-com bubble. (more…)
Published May 22, 2026
Stocks continue to largely ignore the rising bond yields that typically raise warning flags for markets. Below, we provide a series of recent notes from Delta Research regarding recent market action: (more…)
Published May 15, 2026
For many investors, the recent bout of inflation is their first experience with the stubborn beast. The United States has been fortunate over the past three years that a booming AI trade has more than neutralized the negative stock market effects of inflation. (more…)
Published May 8, 2026
Below we offer Schwab’s analysis of the first quarter earnings. The rise in earnings and earnings expectations has driven the sharp rebound in stocks over the past few weeks. (more…)
Published May 1, 2026
This week’s earnings announcements have reminded investors that the AI trade and the extraordinary amount of spending involved in building data centers has very beneficial effects on many companies’ bottom lines. (more…)
Published April 24, 2026
As an investor, it can be confusing to see the market shrug off troubling news events. Such is the case with the Strait of Hormuz closure, an event that is clearly disrupting supply chains of many energy, fertilizer, and other products. (more…)
Published April 17, 2026
Delta Research thinks so. The stock market’s historic move over the past 10 days has caught many investors off guard. For the first time in many moons, retail investors did NOT buy March’s sharp dip in stocks. As we’ve noted in other articles, the specter of private credit defaults, AI rampaging through the software industry, and, lastly, a war that brought oil and gas transport to a near halt were a combination of fears that pummeled the psyches of investors. It was, then, remarkable that the stock market was down only -10%. Are there more shoes to drop in the future? Or was this, like last year’s “tariff tantrum” a quick flush of bearishness in an upward sea of bullish market behavior? Time will tell. (more…)
Published April 10, 2026
Stock valuations are derived from earnings and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings. The note below suggests that the stock market’s recent war-related decline has created a significant gap between stock values and earnings expectations. If so, there could be fuel for stocks in the coming weeks. (more…)
Published April 3, 2026
Delta Research makes the case below for a sharp rally once the War with Iran ends. Complicating their case is the market’s shift to a flat interest rate environment as hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts have largely vanished with the war. (more…)