Weekly Update

Were Investors Too Pessimistic?

By

Published April 17, 2026

 

Delta Research thinks so. The stock market’s historic move over the past 10 days has caught many investors off guard. For the first time in many moons, retail investors did NOT buy March’s sharp dip in stocks. As we’ve noted in other articles, the specter of private credit defaults, AI rampaging through the software industry, and, lastly, a war that brought oil and gas transport to a near halt were a combination of fears that pummeled the psyches of investors. It was, then, remarkable that the stock market was down only -10%. Are there more shoes to drop in the future? Or was this, like last year’s “tariff tantrum” a quick flush of bearishness in an upward sea of bullish market behavior? Time will tell. (more…)

Weekly Update

Support for Stocks Upcoming

By

Published April 10, 2026

 

Stock valuations are derived from earnings and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings. The note below suggests that the stock market’s recent war-related decline has created a significant gap between stock values and earnings expectations. If so, there could be fuel for stocks in the coming weeks. (more…)

Weekly Update

Optimism for a Post-War Rally

By

Published April 3, 2026

 

Delta Research makes the case below for a sharp rally once the War with Iran ends. Complicating their case is the market’s shift to a flat interest rate environment as hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts have largely vanished with the war. (more…)

Weekly Update

Are Retail Investors Too Bullish?

By

Published March 27, 2026

 

For many years, we have read that “the coming decade for stocks will offer little or no return!”. That has certainly not been the case as stocks have generally risen strongly over the past decade. Further, even if stocks did find their way to another “lost decade” of zero net return over many years, we know from experience that getting to that zero return usually includes prolonged swings up and down. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Resilient (Or Complacent) Market?

By

Published March 13, 2026

 

If we were to tell you that:

1) investors will lose confidence in where AI is headed and come to believe it will significantly harm almost all software companies

2) that the private credit engine fueling Wall Street would sputter with investors seeking many millions of dollars of their money back, and banks limiting those redemptions

3) that the U.S. would launch a war sending oil prices up two-fold in a matter of days with no end in sight

4) that said increase in oil prices would send bond yields higher removing any likelihood that the Fed will lower interest rates over, at least, the first half of the year

you would expect stock prices to …

We suspect the answer would NOT likely be “down modestly, about -5%”. Yet that’s where we stand currently. (more…)

Weekly Update

Getting Hit From All Sides

By

Published March 6, 2026

 

Markets have been amazingly resilient over the past year. They bounced back very quickly from the Tariff Tantrum in April and have managed to post gains despite increasing uncertainty. That uncertainty has hit very high levels this week. War in Iran closed the oil-dependent Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices up almost +40% in one week. Friday delivered a bad monthly jobs report showing the U.S. losing jobs and unemployment ticking higher. It’s a double whammy for investors. (more…)

Weekly Update

Private Debt Stubs Its Toe

By

Published February 27, 2026

 

There has been a significant sales pitch over the past year or so to give smaller investors more access to the wonders of private equity and private debt. These opaque markets have exploded in recent years as an alternative to bank lending. Now, asset managers want to expand the market further for these assets by getting them into individual 401k plans. The huge potential of that new business has sent shares of the asset managers skyward in recent years. (more…)

Weekly Update

2026 Delivers Key Sector Divergences

By

Published February 20, 2026

 

The stock market so far in 2026 has shown us a couple of themes: 1) continuing investor preference for non-U.S. stocks, 2) investor preference for “late-cycle” sectors over growth-oriented sectors (shown in chart below).

(more…)

Weekly Update

The AI Scare Trade

By

Published February 13, 2026

AI and its huge demand for data center construction have driven U.S. stock markets the past couple of years. However investors have recently begun looking at the potential downside effects of AI. This has resulted in a massive sell off that began with the software sector and, in recent days, has radiated out into a wider swath of the market. (more…)