Published October 12, 2018
The past few days have seen the stock market fall back hard with the S&P 500 moving from new highs to piercing its 200-day moving average in a shocking 5-day torrent of selling. (more…)
The Market’s Best Performing Sector Isn’t Tech
Published October 5, 2018
Since July, one sector has ruled all in the stock market. While the large-cap Dow Industrials, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all flirt with record highs, you might be surprised to find that neither technology nor consumer stocks, the long-time leaders of this market advance, are the current belles of the ball. That distinction goes to healthcare stocks. (more…)
Market Manias – Bitcoins, Marijuana, and the Internet of the 1990s
Published September 28, 2018
We are far down the road of this bull market cycle. How much further this road goes is anyone’s guess. Nevertheless, we are struck by the mania investing stories of last year and this, namely, cryptocurrencies (2017’s mania), and marijuana stocks (2018’s mania). These stories are very similar to the internet “dot.com” stories of the late 1990s, it appears to us. (more…)
Interest Rates Try to Rise Once Again
Published September 21, 2018
After first popping above 3% back in May, U.S. 10-year Treasury rates returned to that closely-watched level this week, clearing 3% for the second time. The first time rates eclipsed 3% the rally in rates lasted barely a week before investors poured back into bonds pushing yields downward. A push upward in both June and late July failed to clear 3%. Rates have moved quickly in the month of September from 2.85% to 3%+ in a straight shot. This week’s rally finally did the trick, blowing past 3% and setting the stage for perhaps a run to 4%. (more…)
How the Financial Crisis Impacts Our Behavior Today
Published September 14, 2018
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal talks about how the financial crisis bred fear. That fear has kept the economic recovery at a slow burn rate while risk-taking has largely been held in check. (more…)
A Smattering of Concerning Charts
Published September 7, 2018
It is said that stock markets climb a wall of worry. As concerns dissipate, investors feel more free to take risk and buy stocks. A sustainable market rally takes hold when the worries are replaced by a “Goldilocks” scenario where market participants view the near-term future as favorable for stock investing. They buy shares with little concern. The lack of concern reaches a point of complacency where investors are undervaluing potential risks. (more…)
Where the Next Market Crisis Might Come From
Published August 31,2018
With the 10-year anniversary of the onset of the global financial crisis just weeks away, now is a good time to ask where the next global economic crisis might come from. To be clear: We’re not sounding any alarms here. We don’t think a crisis is imminent. But we do like to keep our eyes on the horizon.
Reforms to the global financial system in the wake of the 2008–2009 crisis mean the next crisis probably won’t look like the last one. So what will it look like? (more…)
Some Say Market Risks Are Rising
Published August 24, 2018
In this week where the S&P 500 touched a new high, we thought it would be interesting to hear a more cautionary view. Below we reprint an excellent overview of the recent issues in Turkey (along with comments on the general economy and market) from the folks at Charles Schwab. (more…)
Investment Models + ETFs – Timingcube Was There When It All Began
Published August 17, 2018
TimingCube’s timing was very fortunate. We started publishing our market-beating signals in the summer of 2001, a year or so after the bloom had been ripped off the rose of the dot.com market boom. Investors had enjoyed a nearly non-stop romp through the latter half of the 1990s, with the stock market more than doubling over a 5-year period. (more…)
Worry Warts A-Building
Published August 10, 2018
While the overall picture for stocks remains decidedly positive, we were struck by a building wall of worry in the two article reprints below this week (both from reporters at Marketwatch.com). Of course, the wall of worry provides fuel for further stock price increases as the skeptics give in to the bulls. (more…)
