Published November 6, 2026
Historically and at least in theory, interest rates and stocks have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, stock prices generally face downward pressure; when interest rates fall, the stock market typically receives a boost. (more…)
Published October 30, 2026
Historically, midterm elections have been overwhelmingly positive for the stock market, providing a reliable catalyst for a post-election rally. Extending back to World War II, the S&P500 has risen 100% of the time in the 12 months after midterm elections occur. (more…)
Published October 23, 2026
This week we have a lesson in 3 charts about the state of the US housing market. (more…)
Published October 9, 2026
The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, also known as the Shiller PE, is one of the most widely regarded measures for evaluating long-term stock market valuations. Developed by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, it was first presented in his 1988 research paper, “Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends.” Shiller famously leveraged the ratio in his book Irrational Exuberance to accurately predict the popping of the dot-com bubble. (more…)
Published October 2, 2026
Since COVID, interest rates around the world have been rising at an unprecedented pace. The past 40 years through 2020 saw global interest rates gradually decrease and, as a result assets including real estate and stocks appreciated to bubble levels. The rise of AI while phenomenal has only further increased the risks. (more…)
Published September 25 2026
Artificial Intelligence has supercharged the stock market. Stocks are essentially at all-time highs. By several measures valuations are also at all-time highs. When it comes to earnings estimates, however, this time really is different. (more…)
Published September 18, 2026
Inflation is the general increase in the prices of goods and services across an economy over time, which reduces the purchasing power of money. (more…)
Published September 11, 2026
While almost no one drives diesel-fueled passenger vehicles in the U.S. every person in America is impacted by the rising price of diesel fuel. Perhaps you have seen the recent news that diesel prices have hit an all-time high, rising to $6 per gallon. This is extraordinary given that a year ago, diesel was under $4 per gallon. (more…)
Published September 4, 2026
Having just finished up earnings announcements for the 2Q26 quarter, one thing for certain is that corporate earnings, particularly for large companies, have rarely been stronger. (more…)
