Published March 27, 2026
For many years, we have read that “the coming decade for stocks will offer little or no return!”. That has certainly not been the case as stocks have generally risen strongly over the past decade. Further, even if stocks did find their way to another “lost decade” of zero net return over many years, we know from experience that getting to that zero return usually includes prolonged swings up and down. (more…)
Published March 20, 2026
This week the stock market returned to its long-term 10-week trendline. It was the first visit to this trendline in about a year. (more…)
Published March 13, 2026
If we were to tell you that:
1) investors will lose confidence in where AI is headed and come to believe it will significantly harm almost all software companies
2) that the private credit engine fueling Wall Street would sputter with investors seeking many millions of dollars of their money back, and banks limiting those redemptions
3) that the U.S. would launch a war sending oil prices up two-fold in a matter of days with no end in sight
4) that said increase in oil prices would send bond yields higher removing any likelihood that the Fed will lower interest rates over, at least, the first half of the year
you would expect stock prices to …
We suspect the answer would NOT likely be “down modestly, about -5%”. Yet that’s where we stand currently. (more…)
Published March 6, 2026
Markets have been amazingly resilient over the past year. They bounced back very quickly from the Tariff Tantrum in April and have managed to post gains despite increasing uncertainty. That uncertainty has hit very high levels this week. War in Iran closed the oil-dependent Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices up almost +40% in one week. Friday delivered a bad monthly jobs report showing the U.S. losing jobs and unemployment ticking higher. It’s a double whammy for investors. (more…)
Published February 27, 2026
There has been a significant sales pitch over the past year or so to give smaller investors more access to the wonders of private equity and private debt. These opaque markets have exploded in recent years as an alternative to bank lending. Now, asset managers want to expand the market further for these assets by getting them into individual 401k plans. The huge potential of that new business has sent shares of the asset managers skyward in recent years. (more…)
Published February 20, 2026
The stock market so far in 2026 has shown us a couple of themes: 1) continuing investor preference for non-U.S. stocks, 2) investor preference for “late-cycle” sectors over growth-oriented sectors (shown in chart below).
Published February 13, 2026
AI and its huge demand for data center construction have driven U.S. stock markets the past couple of years. However investors have recently begun looking at the potential downside effects of AI. This has resulted in a massive sell off that began with the software sector and, in recent days, has radiated out into a wider swath of the market. (more…)
Published February 6, 2026
The largest companies in the stock market issued earnings reports this week. Some member of the Magnificent 7 components saw investors heading for the exits after seemingly strong earnings and revenue gains. What gives? (more…)
Published January 30, 2026
One of the projected victims of AI is the land of software. Investors believe, perhaps incorrectly, that AI will make large-scale software platforms unnecessary. Who needs a large HR software package when an AI bot can replicate the functionality at a fraction of the cost? So the theory goes. (more…)
Published January 23, 2026
Over the past couple of years, the gold trade has been, well, absolutely golden. One reason for the meteoric rise of the precious metal has been a shift in attitude toward U.S. Treasury bonds. (more…)