Published July 31, 2026
A week or so ago, Michael Cembalest, an executive in JP Morgan’s wealth management group, issued a thought-provoking report on the parallels between the current AI-fueled boom and the late-90s internet mania. We thought you might find it interesting. (more…)
Published July 24, 2026
Investors with longer memories know all to well the hazards of the late summer/early fall. The Great Financial Crisis began with a seemingly one-off announcement in August 2007. By September of 2008, it was a full-blown crisis. Then, the August budget wrangling of 2015, which gave trend-followers a severe headache. Market volatility spiked amid a sharp selloff in August, followed by a weak September, only for October to reverse course and recover the entire loss in a matter of days. Volatility. (more…)
Published July 17, 2026
At the beginning of this year, as the lines on the chart below show, there was a substantial rotation OUT of tech stocks and into energy, financial, and other non-tech sectors. In April and May, tech stocks staged a massive rebound. (more…)
Published July 10, 2026
Looking at the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index, on which our models are built, we see the 2025 rally off the “Liberation Day” tariff lows up to about the end of October. A sideways consolidation followed for several months as the AI trade was questioned. Then, the War with Iran pushed the index below its 200-day moving average (red line) in March 2026 before extraordinary earnings kicked in and the index shot upward. Now, for the past six weeks, the index has been coiling up – trading in a tighter and tighter way – before its next move. (more…)
Published July 3, 2026
Last week we noted how the market is changing under the surface. That change continued this week. However, Delta Research offers the possibility of a coming shift back toward the Mag 7 as they note below. (more…)
Published June 26, 2026
Just a brief note this week as the stock market continues a slow summer grind. While the action at the broad index level has been flat overall (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both sit roughly where they were seven weeks ago), the action underneath has been furious. There has been a serious rotation OUT of the Mag 7 stocks that have powered this market for so long. (more…)
Published June 18, 2026
Below we offer a brief of Delta Research’s review of the economy and markets at mid-year. We have noted many of these themes in recent weeks as the stock market bulls have consistently fought off bearish uncertainty to drive stock prices higher. (more…)
Published June 12, 2026
Below are a couple of recent writeups regarding the stock market’s efforts to value the enormous cost and opportunity of AI.
Published June 5, 2026
As investors, we scour the news for clues how our investments might be affected by changes in the economy, geopolitics, et al. What we cannot see are the flows of money around the global markets. All we can see are the resultant prices of stocks, bonds and commodities as money flows in and out. Those price movements are what drive our models and, thus, our investment decisions in the short-to-medium term (where our models operate). (more…)
Published May 29, 2026
We found the article below from Bank of America’s equity research team to have an interesting perspective on the market’s AI mania of late.
“The artificial intelligence-fueled rally is often compared with other capital expenditure-led build-outs, like that of the internet during the dot-com bubble. (more…)