Weekly Update

New Hurdles Emerge for Stocks


Published September 25, 2020

After a summer spent surging higher on economy re-openings and optimism for growth, stocks have entered a typical September slump. While we could just chalk it up to typical pre-election caution, there are fundamental factors that have emerged to challenge the market perhaps more seriously than usual. (more…)

Weekly Update

Will Zero Interest Rates Lose Their Impact?


Published September 18, 2020

 

 

 

A couple of notes from widely read investment blogger Josh Brown provide reason to be a little less than thrilled with the Fed’s current language, while also reminding investors that the sharp rally in our favored Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has some strong fundamental support, something lacking in prior QQQ rallies. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Nasdaq Rally “Whale”


Published September 11, 2020

The recent stock market pullback has thus far basically reversed the August surge. Our focused Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped to its 50-day moving average for the first time since the rally began in April. The rally in August (blue arrow below) has been, in part, attributed to a multi-billion $ options bet made by tech investor Softbank. (more…)

Weekly Update

Nasdaq’s Short-Term Rally Breaks


Published September 4, 2020

This week’s moves in the Nasdaq 100 index (trading symbol: QQQ) offer a textbook case of the emotion that influences price movement. For days on end, the QQQ rose (blue line below), with the leading FANGMA stocks trading as if there were no price too high. Investors were fearful of missing out on the strong advance. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Case for International Markets


Published August 28, 2020

timingcube_cartoon082820

The article below from Delta Investment points to the gathering economic and market strength internationally. As noted before, a broader market is a stronger market. The more sectors and markets participate in the market’s rise, the better. For now, our favored Nasdaq index (QQQ) continues to lead the way, powered by the FANGMA trade. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market Rotation Points to More Strength


Published August 14, 2020

timingcube_cartoon081420

This year has certainly already been one for the ages in many ways, including in the stock market. Stock prices have experienced both one of their steepest drops in history as well as one of their most impressive rallies. Bonds have delivered stock-like returns so far, while some commodities have soared – looking at you gold and silver! The market has rewarded both defense (bonds, gold) and offense (high growth tech/consumer stocks). The latest twist in the market has been a notable rotation into cyclical sectors, many of which have been lagging for quite some time. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Stock Market and the Economy


Published August 7, 2020

timingcube_cartoon080720

One of the favorite sources of news and discussion topics in the financial media is the economy and speculation about its future health. Everyone knows that economies, whether local, national or global, repeatedly go through boom and bust cycles. These business cycles affect all of us to some degree but many in the investment community pay particular attention to them because of a fundamental belief that as the economy goes so goes the stock market. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Drop in the U.S. Dollar Could Shift the Investment Landscape


Published July 31, 2020

timingcube_cartoon073120

There has been a lot of attention recently about the sharp drop in the price of the U.S. dollar. This decline has sent gold and other commodity prices soaring. Driving this decline in the dollar is a quicker recovery in economies outside the U.S., last week’s coordinated stimulus action by the European Union (which bolsters the Euro), and the zero interest rate policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve for as long as the eye can see. To put this in context, until recently, the dollar enjoyed a very long run of strength as Europe and Japan struggled. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Stock Market Adds New Fuel to the Rally


No Comments

Published July 24, 2020

timingcube_cartoon072420

We have mentioned recently the need for the stock market to expand its participation if the rally was to continue.  Over the past couple of weeks this appears to be happening.  See below a variety of sectors outside the usual FANGMA* tech/consumer complex that have been showing strength.  This rotation is what fuels longer-term stock market rallies.

(more…)