Published September 15, 2017
Below is a really good overview of economic activity in the U.S. looking at some lower level data.
When times are good, people go to Vegas. Since the recession in 2008, Las Vegas convention attendance has climbed to new highs. At the current pace, convention attendance and overall Vegas visitation will set new records in 2017. (more…)
Published September 8, 2017
The article below, excerpted from Charles Schwab, displays just how strong global equities have been this year.
Chart 1 below is a table of global stock market returns by month using the MSCI All-Cap World Index (ACWI). August came close to breaking the uninterrupted streak of monthly gains for global stocks. This year has seen the only time the index ever (since its inception 30 years ago) posted a gain in every one of the first eight months of the year, as you can see in the heat map of monthly returns below. (more…)
Published September 1, 2017
We have written a few times this summer about the global force behind the stock market’s unceasing rally so far in 2017. August proved once again how resilient this rally is, with stocks dropping back a bit only to be relaunched to new highs by the end of the month. (more…)
Published August 25, 2017
Below from Delta is a good overview of the gap between different stock indexes and how large that gap has been this year. In reading this remember that small-cap value stocks are the best performing group over the history of the stock market. That this group is so substantially under-performing might mean something. (more…)
Published August 18, 2017
Stocks took a potentially nasty turn this week. Whether that turn leads into a sharper decline will be the question facing investors in the month of September – historically known for providing its share of upset. (more…)
Published August 11, 2017
Yield spreads provide a view into the risk appetite of market participants. If the spread between low risk and high risk bonds is large, investors are concerned and want to receive more compensation for taking on the added risk. As investors become more comfortable with the market and begin to view it as increasingly benign, they require less compensation. In times of extreme market complacency, the relationships between risk and return appear to almost break down. And so it is with European high yield (aka “junk”) bonds today. (more…)
Published August 4, 2017
There are a number of folks talking about how overvalued this stock market is. Many of them refer to the metrics, indicators, and models discussed below. Read through this analysis from Jill Mislinski and we will return for some perspective at the end.
“Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
• The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline
Published July 28, 2017
We found Josh Brown’s thoughts on the current market interesting. It could be extrapolated to be a comment on investing much of the time.
The negatives:
The US stock market is now selling for close to a record high valuation. Volatility for the S&P 500 is currently registering record low readings. Brilliant hedge fund managers like David Einhorn are ringing the alarm bells over the worship of growth stocks without earnings. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a $90 billion cash hoard, struggling to find reasonably valued assets to invest it in. Bonds are no bargain given today’s yields vs inflation, and that’s assuming rates are just steady – if they rise more quickly than expected, there will be some pain. (more…)
Published July 21, 2017
After an extraordinary seven months sitting in Buy, our Turbo Model finally succumbed to a pullback in the Nasdaq and issued a Sell signal at the end of June. That kicked off a string of signals, six in all, that was essentially breakeven with a -0.4% return. This came after a near +20% run from the seven-month Buy signal of early December. (more…)
Published July 14, 2017
As many of our subscribers are interested in various stock market strategies, and timing strategies more specifically, we thought you might enjoy this article from Dana Lyons.
“Seasonality in stock investing is a tricky thing. In one way, some of the most profitable and reliable timing systems are those which depend only upon seasonality. On the other hand, emotionally and rationally, they are extraordinarily difficult to implement, at least exclusively. (more…)
