Weekly Update

Visiting Valuations: the Cyclically-adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) Ratio

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Published October 9, 2026

The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, also known as the Shiller PE, is one of the most widely regarded measures for evaluating long-term stock market valuations. Developed by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, it was first presented in his 1988 research paper, “Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends.” Shiller famously leveraged the ratio in his book Irrational Exuberance to accurately predict the popping of the dot-com bubble. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Global Economy May Be In Trouble

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Published October 2, 2026

 

Since COVID, interest rates around the world have been rising at an unprecedented pace.  The past 40 years through 2020 saw global interest rates gradually decrease and, as a result assets including real estate and stocks appreciated to bubble levels.  The rise of AI while phenomenal has only further increased the risks. (more…)

Weekly Update

S&P500 Earnings Growth: Opportunity and Risk

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Published September 25 2026

 

Artificial Intelligence has supercharged the stock market.  Stocks are essentially at all-time highs.  By several measures valuations are also at all-time highs. When it comes to earnings estimates, however, this time really is different.  (more…)

Weekly Update

Inflation is a Thief

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Published September 18, 2026

Inflation is the general increase in the prices of goods and services across an economy over time, which reduces the purchasing power of money. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Record High for Diesel

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Published September 11, 2026

 

While almost no one drives diesel-fueled passenger vehicles in the U.S. every person in America is impacted by the rising price of diesel fuel.  Perhaps you have seen the recent news that diesel prices have hit an all-time high, rising to $6 per gallon.  This is extraordinary given that a year ago, diesel was under $4 per gallon. (more…)

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Corporate Earnings Are Strong

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Published September 4, 2026

 

Having just finished up earnings announcements for the 2Q26 quarter, one thing for certain is that corporate earnings, particularly for large companies, have rarely been stronger. (more…)

Weekly Update

Can Nvidia Save the Rally?

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Published August 21, 2026

Investors have been stuck in recent days fretting over interest rates while the tech rally hits a wall. The note below from Marketwatch highlights what might unstick tech stocks and the broader market.
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