Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A Shift in Market Preference Potentially Has Arrived


Published December 6, 2019

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Over the past two years, some might be surprised to find that real estate has been the best investment of the four typical “core” asset classes – stocks (domestic and international), bonds, real estate, commodities (in the form of gold here). This is consistent with declining interest rates as the Fed shifted from raising to lowering rates. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Bulls increasingly taking control


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Published November 29, 2019

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We have recently seen positive movement in several new areas of the stock market.  See below the note from U.S. Global Investors on the possible bottoming in Europe.  Following that, we have a couple of charts showing new breakouts in the U.S. market.  The stock market continues to show signs it will embrace its seasonally strong holiday period.
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Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Fibonacci Levels and the QQQ


Published November 22, 2019

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Below is a chart from Chris Kimble showing the Nasdaq 100’s rise over the past decade. The green trendlines define the uptrend. After spending much of the spring and summer bouncing around between 175 and 195, the QQQ (the trading symbol for the Nasdaq 100) pushed above 200, where it has held all of November. The blue % numbers on the chart (e.g. 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%) define the possible Fibonacci levels the QQQ could react to. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Market Needs Inflation


Published November 15, 2019

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We are shaped by the financial crises we experience. For those of us who lived through the sharp inflation hike of the 1970s, we are forever sensitive to inflation, looking behind every datapoint for evidence of the inflation beast lurking. Over the past decade, inflation has been remarkably steady with the inflation beast long ago tamed. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Markets Shifting


Published November 8, 2019

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As the calendar has turned to the seasonally strong fourth quarter, markets appear to be at important crossroads. After leading the market all year, the more cautious low-volatility stocks might be finally giving way to strength in the more economically-sensitive, higher-beta stocks. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Behind the New High Headlines? A Stealth Bear Market.


Published November 1, 2019

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In the parlance of technical analysis there are two possible explanations for major leaps upward in the stock market. The market is either beginning a new uptrend – a change in market character and trend called an “initiation climax”; or the last gasp of a tired uptrend where sellers have given up and the late buyers rule the day – an “exhaustion climax”. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Market Spring Is Coiled Up


Published October 25, 2019

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As a follow-on to our note last week are a couple of other technical analysts seeing markets poised to move higher. First, an article from CNBC’s Patti Domm, followed by additional related information from Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald. Bottom line: for several reasons, stocks are ready to jump upward if some positive news bursts forth. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A Weak Economic Report Unsettles Investors


Published October 11, 2019

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The stock market has been going nowhere for four straight months as investors have hoped for a breakthrough in U.S. trade negotiations with China. Most days, stocks are reacting to rumors or vague official announcements regarding the outlook for those trade talks. However, there was one recent hard economic datapoint that caught investor attention. (more…)