Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A Weak Economic Report Unsettles Investors


Published October 11, 2019

timingcube_cartoon101119

The stock market has been going nowhere for four straight months as investors have hoped for a breakthrough in U.S. trade negotiations with China. Most days, stocks are reacting to rumors or vague official announcements regarding the outlook for those trade talks. However, there was one recent hard economic datapoint that caught investor attention. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Contrasting Views Lead to Range-Bound Trading


Published September 27, 2019

timingcube_cartoon092719

Bond manager PIMCO recently offered their mid-year outlook for the global economy and markets. Their conclusions are:

“In a nutshell, we see a global economy about to enter a low-growth “window of weakness,” which we expect to persist going into 2020 with heightened uncertainty about whether it is a window to recovery or recession. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

How Emotion Drives the Economy


Published September 20, 2019

timingcube_cartoon092019

Finance, and investing even more so, are resting on the foundation of human emotion. How much a stock is worth certainly has some underpinning in the company’s earnings. But perhaps more important is the price-earnings or P/E ratio, which is how much investors are willing to PAY for those earnings. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Stock Market’s Unspent Fuel


Published September 13, 2019

timingcube_cartoon091319

Stocks in the U.S. have come roaring back from the weakness of one month ago, returning to the doorstep of new high ground. Lost in the enthusiasm about new highs, however, is the fact that fully half of the stock market has been treading water for almost two years now. If that lagging half of the market were to break through, stocks would be in a position to substantially rally. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A Mixed Bag Economy


Published August 30, 2019

timingcube_cartoon083019

Liz Ann Sonders at Charles Schwab recently wrote a thorough overview of the current economic state. Given the latest increase in economic uncertainty courtesy of the ramping of the trade war—but also last week’s release of the Leading Economic Index (LEI), her report is worth posting here for our subscribers who are interested in tracking the economy and musing about where that might be headed. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Business Cycle/Sector Investing Takes a Curve Ball This Cycle


Published August 23, 2019

timingcube_cartoon082319

Business cycle/sector investing is a seemingly easy way to apply a layer of insight to traditional buy-and-hold investing. By focusing our investment funds on sectors that typically show improved performance during certain phases of the business cycle, a sector investor can presume to outperform the broad market. However, it is never quite that easy. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Dreaded Yield Curve Inversion


Published August 16, 2019

timingcube_cartoon081619

Like a surfer bounced by wave upon wave, investors were hit this week by a second wave. After a one day burst of market joy as the Trump Administration dialed back the September 1st imposition of trade tariffs, the U.S. Treasury bond market was rocked by a deeper reduction in yields. (more…)