Weekly Update

Retail Sales, Unemployment, and Those Irrepressible FAANGs

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Published May 26, 2023

 

Below are excerpts from Blaine Rollins’ latest collection of market and economic observations and data. There continues to be an extraordinary lack of consensus around any market narrative. Thus, we keep chopping around mostly sideways in the broad market while the heavy-hitters of the market are perceived as the safest bet to make in the stock market. Stocks have strong competition also as short-term debt instruments offer 5%+ returns for little to no risk. At some point, this all breaks down. But that breakdown could well be a surge of money into the rest of the stock market which one of Blaine’s sources below shows is rather cheap these days. Given that such an outcome is talked about relatively little, perhaps it’s the most likely destination for stocks? (more…)

Weekly Update

What if the Recession Has Already Happened?

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Published May 19, 2023

There is no shortage of commentary and hand-wringing about a coming recession. In the piece below, one Fidelity analyst posits that the recession may have already occurred. Here is Denise Chisholm’s analysis:

“Did we already have a hard landing? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn’t officially called a recession, but signs suggest that we may have already had a fairly bad one. One of the most consistent recession indicators has been a contraction in real wages (adjusted for inflation), which happened in every recession since 1962 except the 2020 COVID shutdown (chart hereunder). Real wages declined throughout 2022—falling more than they did during the Great Recession—as inflation outpaced wage growth. Real wage growth may have bottomed last fall; a rebound could provide a tailwind for the economy and the stock market. (more…)

Uncategorized

Email Spoofing Warning

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Published May 12, 2023

 

We want to take a moment to talk about email spoofing and how to protect yourself from it. Email spoofing is when someone sends an email that appears to be from a trusted source, like us, but is actually from a fraudulent account. These emails often contain links that lead to phishing websites or malware downloads, which can compromise your personal and financial information.

At TimingCube, we take your security seriously, and we want to assure you that our notifications requesting a change of personal information will never include a link in them. Instead, our emails will always request that you log in to our site to perform any actions. This is because we want to ensure that you are accessing our site securely and that you are protected from any potential email spoofing attempts.

If you receive an email that claims to be from us, asking for personal information change with a link, please do not click on the link or provide any information. Instead, please contact us immediately to report the incident so we can take appropriate action to protect you and our other customers.

Thank you for your attention to this important matter. We remain committed to providing you with the best possible service and security.

(more…)

Weekly Update

Markets Chopping Amidst Furious Uncertainty

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Published May 5, 2023

 

Markets continue to slog their way back and forth within a fairly tight range, bouncing between scenarios for a recession (or not), interest rate pauses from the Fed (or not), and just what is happening with the banks(!). Mixed signals abound. Despite corporate earnings coming in well above fears, the uncertainties noted keep investors from pursuing any consistent meaningful direction. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market Remains Stuck Despite Generally Positive Earnings

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Published April 28, 2023

 

Below is Delta Research’s take on the current market conditions. Volatility has plunged from the bank crisis in March and is approaching the low end of its range for the post-pandemic cycle. Following Delta’s review, we post a more bearish, fundamental driven, outlook from Bank of America as an example of the type of bearish thinking Delta refers to. (more…)

Weekly Update

Late Cycle Economics and a Stagnant Market

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Published April 21, 2023

 

Fidelity provided an update on where they see global economics this week. The nation’s largest administrator of 401k plans finds much of the world in late-cycle growth mode where credit gets tighter, earnings struggle, and economic growth slows. The next step is recession, which is what the vast majority of the economic watchers have been projecting for some time now. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Difference Between TimingCube and Traditional Investing

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Published April 14, 2023

 

 

Here at TimingCube, we begin by acknowledging that investing is a difficult endeavor emotionally; that human beings are mostly built to FLEE RISK and EMBRACE CERTAINTY. To be a successful investor, we are told, you must buy when others are fleeing and get comfortable with uncertainty – in other words, act completely opposite to what most human beings are hard-wired to do. We are told that the inherent volatility of the stock market is an OPPORTUNITY for you to buy low and sell high.

At TimingCube, we deal with this dichotomy between the design of human emotions and having to act seemingly against that emotional design by building quantitative models to REMOVE EMOTION from investing. By removing the emotion, we can use the model to give us more certainty and less exposure to risk, putting us in cash when markets are acting up and volatility is high. That pursuit of SAFE INVESTING is what we strive for. (more…)

Weekly Update

Digesting a Volatile First Quarter and Looking Forward

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Published April 7, 2023

 

 

Below, Schwab’s research group offers its quarterly outlook after a choppy first quarter that ultimately saw a strong rebound in megacap tech stocks while small-cap stocks went nowhere.

“There’s an old saying about Federal Reserve tightening cycles: The Fed “tightens until something breaks.” Cracks emerged during the first quarter of this year, as rising rates, tighter lending conditions, and shrinking liquidity weighed on economic growth. The banking system turmoil that emerged near the end of the quarter was an unsettling addition to investor concerns. (more…)

Weekly Update

Is the Stock Market Turning Around?

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Published March 31, 2023

 

The stock market appears to have shrugged off the recent bank crisis and is ready to press upward. Does this mean the bear market is over? We have a couple of competing views below. First, Delta Research provides an overview of the market and reasons for the recent thrust higher. Second, Barron’s offers a warning. Third, we have a chart that supports both cases, depending on your perspective. (more…)

Weekly Update

Are Stocks Overreacting to the Bank News?

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Published March 24, 2023

 

The struggle for markets to find an uptrend continues as the bank sector provides plenty of storm clouds, the near-term future of the economy is completely uncertain, and the Fed continues to fight the last fight (aka inflation). (more…)