Published December 20, 2019
Investors continue to be willing to take on more risk. Now that the “phase one” trade deal with China appears to be completed, the UK election results are in, and the Federal Reserve projects being on hold for quite some time, investors have breathed a collective sigh of relief. (more…)
Published December 13, 2019
After a more than -20% decline from their peak during 2018, international stocks have worked their way back as shown in the chart below. (more…)
Published December 6, 2019
Over the past two years, some might be surprised to find that real estate has been the best investment of the four typical “core” asset classes – stocks (domestic and international), bonds, real estate, commodities (in the form of gold here). This is consistent with declining interest rates as the Fed shifted from raising to lowering rates. (more…)
Published November 29, 2019
We have recently seen positive movement in several new areas of the stock market. See below the note from U.S. Global Investors on the possible bottoming in Europe. Following that, we have a couple of charts showing new breakouts in the U.S. market. The stock market continues to show signs it will embrace its seasonally strong holiday period.
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Published November 22, 2019
Below is a chart from Chris Kimble showing the Nasdaq 100’s rise over the past decade. The green trendlines define the uptrend. After spending much of the spring and summer bouncing around between 175 and 195, the QQQ (the trading symbol for the Nasdaq 100) pushed above 200, where it has held all of November. The blue % numbers on the chart (e.g. 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%) define the possible Fibonacci levels the QQQ could react to. (more…)
Published November 15, 2019
We are shaped by the financial crises we experience. For those of us who lived through the sharp inflation hike of the 1970s, we are forever sensitive to inflation, looking behind every datapoint for evidence of the inflation beast lurking. Over the past decade, inflation has been remarkably steady with the inflation beast long ago tamed. (more…)
Published November 8, 2019
As the calendar has turned to the seasonally strong fourth quarter, markets appear to be at important crossroads. After leading the market all year, the more cautious low-volatility stocks might be finally giving way to strength in the more economically-sensitive, higher-beta stocks. (more…)
Published November 1, 2019
In the parlance of technical analysis there are two possible explanations for major leaps upward in the stock market. The market is either beginning a new uptrend – a change in market character and trend called an “initiation climax”; or the last gasp of a tired uptrend where sellers have given up and the late buyers rule the day – an “exhaustion climax”. (more…)
Published October 25, 2019
As a follow-on to our note last week are a couple of other technical analysts seeing markets poised to move higher. First, an article from CNBC’s Patti Domm, followed by additional related information from Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald. Bottom line: for several reasons, stocks are ready to jump upward if some positive news bursts forth. (more…)
Published October 18, 219
Recent breakouts in key stocks and sectors have some investors feeling that a bullish breakout is coming, after months of sideways trading. (more…)