Published August 3, 2018
Much is discussed about the potential for an inverted yield curve, a situation where short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term rates. The inverted yield curve has a good recent track record for predicting recessions as Chart 1 below shows. (more…)
Published July 27, 2018
Below is an interesting article by Nick Maggiulli pointing out that time, YOUR personal time – as in when you are alive, matters very much as to your life (and investing) experience. Imagine the difference between having your primary investing years occurring during the go-go days of the 1990s, retiring in 1999, turning over your hefty equity gains from the 1980s and 1990s into a heavily bond/income portfolio. The 600%+ return of the stock market from 1984-1999 would have delivered a nice retirement package. If you were only five years younger, however, your retirement package would be fully HALF of the prior example as your primary investing years would have spanned the dot-com market crash. (more…)
Published July 20, 2018
Through the first half of the year, only three sectors outperformed the broad market – technology, consumer, and energy. (more…)
Published July 13, 2018
While we investors all know that past performance is no guarantee of future results, when an investment approach has worked 100% of the time, over a period of over 70 years and across almost 20 cyclicals of data, we take notice. A slide in this week’s presentation by CFRA offered just such a strong possibility of near-certainty. (more…)
Published July 6, 2018
Corporate earnings are driven by:
The recent change in tax law for corporations reduced the cost of doing business thereby increasing profit margins. (more…)
Published June 29, 2018
International and emerging market stocks have displayed disturbing action recently, failing to hold support, giving up a two-year rally, and accelerating a notable downtrend. The chart below highlights the crossover of the 50 and 200-day moving averages. We see on the left side of the chart the circle and line highlighting the prior crossover for emerging markets back in mid-2015. (more…)
Published June 22, 2018
Here at TimingCube we are dedicated to using models to drive our investing decisions. We recognize that investing our hard-earned money is really an exercise in regulating our emotions. We are constantly faced with a constant flow of noise and information, much of which can cause us to make poor money decisions. Our models don’t hear that noise.
Published June 15, 2018
Our favored Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been marching strongly upward, along with the small-cap Russell 2000, breaking to new highs and continuing to find buyers. Unlike 2017, however, this market strength is not so broad-based. International stocks have been flat, with the rising U.S. dollar keeping the pressure on those indexes.
Published June 7, 2018
The summer heat has arrived in force here in Austin over the past couple of weeks. Our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has also been hot, emerging from a three-month market correction to break out to new highs recently. The commentary below from the team at Charles Schwab does a good job of outlining some of the major positives and negatives the market wrestles with these days. We hope you find it informative.
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Published June 1, 2018
It was a wild week on Wall Street. For a summary of those happenings, see our market commentary at the bottom of this article. For this week’s blog, we are stepping way back from the day-to-day of markets. Below is Jill Mislinski’s survey of secular market trends coupled with an overview of demographic shifts that may have a significant impact on how the economy evolves in the coming decades. We hope you find it interesting. (more…)
