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Weekly Update

Interest Rates and Economic Uncertainty Keep a Lid on the Market

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Published September 16, 2022

 

Investors have their hands full these days trying to parse the conflicting economic reports. The labor market tells us that unemployment is at record low levels. Wages are rising for the first time in a very long time. Yet, fear is growing that the economy may be softening, while inflation remains higher than investors would like (fueled by those same rising wages). This week was a microcosm of the pitched battle between bulls and bears.

We will look at the market’s largest and perhaps most influential stock, Apple. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market Recovers to Resistance

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Published August 5, 2022

 

 

The stock market is at a crossroads having recovered the entirety of its June plunge. Prior to that plunge, stocks ran in place for several days as the bulls and bears fought mightily. That standoff was won by the bears, and the plunge ensued. The counter-rally, once it got going, has been almost as swift. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Bit of Calm Returns to Stocks

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Published March 25, 2022

 

The stock market has settled down quite a lot in recent days as this chart of the volatility index shows. When volatility jumped down over that blue trendline, and kept going down, it was a likely sign that stock investors could breathe a little easier. Nevertheless, we also note that volatility has been generally elevated since mid-November and has a ways to go before true calm returns to the market. (more…)

Weekly Update

How Do We Value the Stock Market?

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Published October 15, 2021

There is always plenty of talk about whether the stock market is ‘fairly’ valued, expensive, or cheap. It is a question without an answer; there are only opinions. Because in the marketplace, the price is determined solely by what investors are willing to pay. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Stock Market-Economy Connection

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Published March 12, 2021

Below is the most recent analysis from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders. While some have struggled with the seeming disconnect between the stock market and economy over the past year, Ms. Sonders outlines how the market and economy have been much more in sync than we might realize. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Old Guard Flexes Some Muscle

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Published October 23, 2020

 

With the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index as the focus of our models, we spend a lot of time talking about that index and its major components – e.g. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, et al. Another trend in the market, and one that might be poised to outperform the Nasdaq, is the old line industrials. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Stock market seeks other drivers

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Published July 17, 2020

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A few miscellaneous notes this week that describe the current market outlook, foggy though it be.  Starting at the highest level with the wide range of earnings projections for the S&P 500.  Currently, the S&P 500 index trades around 3200.  If we look at the chart below, we see a 2021 earnings per share for the S&P 500 range of $135-170.  At $135, the S&P 500 is trading at price-earnings ratio of 23, on the high end of “normal”.

(more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Nasdaq Goes Its Own Way

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Published April 17, 2020

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The stock market’s recovery from its March plunge has seen a few groups and stocks rise to the top. Many of those favored groups and stocks are heavyweight members of the Nasdaq 100 stock index, trading under the symbol QQQ. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Tech Takeover Speculation – Apple Taking Over Netflix

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Published November 10, 2017

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Given that our investment focus is on market indexes and sectors, we don’t talk much about individual companies in our weekly blog. However, this opinion piece from noted investment industry figure Barry Ritholtz published on Bloomberg’s website, showcases two of tech’s (and the Nasdaq’s) largest and most influential companies. We thought you might find it interesting as the market grinds ever-higher. (more…)