Weekly Update

Economic data versus the stock market

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Published May 12, 2017

TimingCube_cartoon051217There is a natural tendency for investors to believe that the stock market will follow economic trends.  What some people fail to realize, at least initially, is that investors are looking out into the future and the expected movement in the economy.  Only when an economic datapoint shows up that is at odds with that expected outlook do stocks react.  The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) seeks to measure how those datapoints are matching up to what has been expected.  (more…)

Weekly Update

Getting Nervous?

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Published May 5, 2017

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When our most recent TimingCube Turbo Model Buy signal was sent out on December 6 we can bet that no one expected it would still be in place five months later with a gain (using the QQQ) of over +18%. While the trend, especially on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), remains up, and strong earnings growth reports coming in this month appear supportive of the market, some fund managers are nervous. (more…)

Weekly Update

It’s All About Earnings

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Published April 28, 2017

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An excellent overview of the current state of the stock market from the folks at Schwab:

Investors appear to be taking another look at the risks they are willing to take, while also considering whether the reflation story may not develop as hoped. Reflation is the process of getting economic growth and price broadly back to pre-recession levels. While progress has been made, growth is still not accelerating. First quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to come in around a 1% annualized level according to Bloomberg. (more…)

Weekly Update

Will the Robots Sidestep the Next Bear Market?

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Published April 21, 2017

TimingCube_cartoon042117The rise of robo-advisors over the past five years is not surprising given the nearly non-stop upward trajectory of stocks. Investors have been lulled into a state of complacency assuming the investment waters are always so calm and just riding the market indexes is a perfectly fine way to invest. The article below comes from an organization who, like us here at TimingCube, believes that robo-advisors and their buy-and-hold models are an accident waiting to happen. (more…)

Weekly Update

Risk Rises

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Published April 14,2017

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This week brought the return of geopolitical concerns to the stock market. The volatility “fear” index spiked in the wake of the U.S. bombing of Syria, deployment of a U.S. warship to the waters off North Korea, and tougher talk from the Trump Administration toward Russia. It’s been a good six months since the stock market has found anything to worry about. (more…)

Weekly Update

Global Markets are Relatively Cheap

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Published April 7, 2017

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Below is an excerpt from a recent commentary by investment firm Per Sterling that we think provides a good overview of the perspective of many market analysts at this point. Of course, TimingCube’s models are not driven by any of the fundamental or valuation factors described in this article; but instead are focused on price and volume in the market (e.g. supply and demand). (more…)

Weekly Update

Long-term Stock Indicator Shows Green

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Published March 31, 2017

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DecisionPoint has long been a large influence on our work here at Fraser Partners (developer and publisher of TimingCube, FPResearch, TradeGuru, and ETFTide). The chart and technical analysis purveyor has a disciplined, consistent approach as we do. We are kindred spirits. Below is a long-term chart (Chart 1) showing over 20 years of stock market history. (more…)

Weekly Update

Catalysts for Market Rally Come into Question

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Published March 24, 2017

Loaner

The post-election rally has been built on President Trump’s ability to implement his tax reform and infrastructure building agenda, with heavy emphasis on the tax reform. Recent events have caused the market to get nervous about the ability of the Trump agenda to be carried out. First, tax reform was not pursued as the primary objective with Congress. Instead, healthcare reform, specifically reforming the Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare, became the first order of business. This put the success of passing the healthcare reform as a first test of Trump’s ability to get his agenda through Congress. (more…)

Weekly Update

Global Stock Rally

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Published March 17, 2017

Financial Planner

Like most investors, we focus mainly on our local market. We are highly attuned to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, the Dow Industrial and Russell 2000. This stock market rally kick-started in November is very much a global phenomenon with recent participation abroad adding more and more fuel. Chart 1 below, of the global stock market index shows the rally bursting forth (out of a cup-with-handle chart formation and/or an inverse head and shoulders as you like). (more…)

Weekly Update

Biotech About to Turn It Around?

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Published March 10, 2017

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In 2015, after more than quadrupling in price in a massive bullish run, biotech stocks hit a wall. Presumably undone by some comments from then-Senator Hillary Clinton that drug prices were too high and needed to be addressed, biotech stocks began wilting. Mrs. Clinton’s comments aside, the stocks had run to a point where they were just way overvalued and due for a rest. (more…)