Published July 21, 2017
After an extraordinary seven months sitting in Buy, our Turbo Model finally succumbed to a pullback in the Nasdaq and issued a Sell signal at the end of June. That kicked off a string of signals, six in all, that was essentially breakeven with a -0.4% return. This came after a near +20% run from the seven-month Buy signal of early December. (more…)
Published April 14,2017
This week brought the return of geopolitical concerns to the stock market. The volatility “fear” index spiked in the wake of the U.S. bombing of Syria, deployment of a U.S. warship to the waters off North Korea, and tougher talk from the Trump Administration toward Russia. It’s been a good six months since the stock market has found anything to worry about. (more…)
Published February 17, 2017
After two months spent churning around while the Nasdaq index caught up, stocks have powered upward so far this month. With this second leg of the post-election rally kicked off, investors have a substantial fear of missing out (FOMO as the social media set would call it). This self-reinforcing ebullience has pushed volatility to extremely low levels. As Chart 1 below from Charlie Bilello shows, the S&P 500 has set a record for the number of days without even a +/-1% move, a record that now stands at some 44 days, a full 10 days or almost 30% longer than the prior record. (more…)
