volatility

Weekly Update

Calm Gives Way to Signal “Storm”


Published July 21, 2017

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After an extraordinary seven months sitting in Buy, our Turbo Model finally succumbed to a pullback in the Nasdaq and issued a Sell signal at the end of June. That kicked off a string of signals, six in all, that was essentially breakeven with a -0.4% return. This came after a near +20% run from the seven-month Buy signal of early December. (more…)

Weekly Update

Risk Rises


Published April 14,2017

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This week brought the return of geopolitical concerns to the stock market. The volatility “fear” index spiked in the wake of the U.S. bombing of Syria, deployment of a U.S. warship to the waters off North Korea, and tougher talk from the Trump Administration toward Russia. It’s been a good six months since the stock market has found anything to worry about. (more…)

Weekly Update

Why worry?


Published February 17, 2017

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After two months spent churning around while the Nasdaq index caught up, stocks have powered upward so far this month. With this second leg of the post-election rally kicked off, investors have a substantial fear of missing out (FOMO as the social media set would call it). This self-reinforcing ebullience has pushed volatility to extremely low levels. As Chart 1 below from Charlie Bilello shows, the S&P 500 has set a record for the number of days without even a +/-1% move, a record that now stands at some 44 days, a full 10 days or almost 30% longer than the prior record. (more…)