Published December 12, 2025
Over the coming three weeks we will offer Schwab’s outlook for the coming year. It’s a full document. So, we think cutting into more bite-sized pieces makes sense. Here’s the first section on the economy:
“This unique economic and market cycle is best defined using a couple of key letters: U and K. (more…)
Published April 18, 2025
Below, we provide an excerpt of Blake Millard’s work discussing the impact of spikes in volatility. The market recently had a major spike with volatility remaining very elevated. What happens next historically? (more…)
Published February 2, 2024
The stock market in recent years has been clearly driven by changes in interest rates. If you looked at nothing else but rates, you would have done a great job investing in stocks. Of course, the volatility of some moves along the way were heart-stopping, which is why we prefer having the help of our models. Outside of the pandemic, the economy has been on a nearly non-stop upward trajectory – far outperforming the economies of other countries around the globe. Yet the bears persist in their doom and gloom, finding some (typically well-worn) angle to throw darts at the health of the economy and markets. (more…)
Published December 16, 2022
We found this opinion piece from Merryn Somerset Webb to be interesting as we turn our attention to 2023 projections. Ms. Webb writes for the Financial Times, among many other publications. Her commentary below obviously refers much to her home country of the UK. But many, if not most, of her observations apply globally. Of course, our models are agnostic to economic trends such as those discussed here. Instead, we focus only on the price and volume trends in the market – up or down – and attempt to react accordingly. (more…)
Published September 30, 2022
Blaine Rollins outlines the key questions facing investors these days. Here are some excerpts from his recent commentary:
“You can see the light at the end, but how much risk will you take to run down to the other end? Big returns await if you can only make it to the other side. But there is always the possibility that you make it part way and the train called ‘recession’ interrupts your path. (more…)
Published September 4, 2020
This week’s moves in the Nasdaq 100 index (trading symbol: QQQ) offer a textbook case of the emotion that influences price movement. For days on end, the QQQ rose (blue line below), with the leading FANGMA stocks trading as if there were no price too high. Investors were fearful of missing out on the strong advance. (more…)
Published December 14, 2018
2018 was supposed to be the year that financial stocks took charge. Rising interest rates were expected to provide profitable fuel for banks to substantially increase profits. Instead, financial stocks are some of the worst performers of the year. (more…)
Published December 7, 2018
Stock investors were reminded this week that the market remains unhealthy. After approaching a retest of this market correction’s lows a couple of weeks ago, stocks ripped higher last week to recover all of the ground given up the week before. This week began well. (more…)
Published June 22, 2018
Here at TimingCube we are dedicated to using models to drive our investing decisions. We recognize that investing our hard-earned money is really an exercise in regulating our emotions. We are constantly faced with a constant flow of noise and information, much of which can cause us to make poor money decisions. Our models don’t hear that noise.
Published May 11, 2018
After a nearly vertical rise in January, stocks succumbed to their steepest 10% decline ever, giving back ALL of January’s gains and then some in what amounted to three huge days of selling. (more…)