Treasury

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

If History Is Our Guide, This Bear Market Is Just Getting Started


Published April 3, 2020

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There are many stories already in this bear market. Below, we present a few that might be of interest. First, we take a look at our focus index, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). The line across the middle notes the price point ($195) where this index broke out back in November to begin a four month rally. That breakout ran fast and hard. We now trade below that breakout point. In fact, it served as a point of resistance (aka net selling) to halt the most recent rebound effort. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Paying the bank to hold your money


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Published July 26, 2019

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As we’ve noted many times before, the stock and bond markets since the financial crisis have been driven for the most part by the policies of the world’s central banks.  Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States (the “Fed”) and the European Central Bank (“ECB”), have been very sensitive to markets and have clearly sought to directly influence them.  There is no question they have been successful in this task.  Simply look back to December when U.S. markets were struggling.

(more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Knowing Whether the Market Prefers Risk or Safety


Published April 13, 2018

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With our TimingCube Turbo model we are either on a Buy signal or a Sell signal, holding a long position (Buy) or a short position (Sell). While we are taking risk with any signal, (we could win or lose) most investors take a single view of the market, as either going up (winning) or going down (losing). The market is either “risk-on” or “risk-off”. It would seem easy to tell whether the market is happy or not by whether it is rising or falling. However, that simple approach doesn’t necessarily tell the story. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Where the Stock Market Might Be Headed Next


Published November 17, 2017

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We thought the outlook below from Delta Investments provided a good overview of the factors supporting the stock market. Enjoy!

Our 2018 S&P 500 Index outlook is up. If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.

The following ten factors support our 2018 bullish investment thesis: (more…)