stocks

Weekly Update

Reminder: The Market Is All About Supply and Demand, Nothing Else

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Published February 5, 2021

That’s right folks, any market: stocks, bonds, commodities, milk, diapers, et al. is ONLY about supply and demand. Sure, we try to make ourselves feel better by assigning formulas and trying to figure out some “fair value” based on historical data. But it’s a complete wild west guess, right? Take the price-earnings ratio, so frequently used to peg the stock market as being “expensive” or “cheap”. This ratio has run anywhere from 10 to 100, settling in a typical range of 15-20 or so. Still, it’s a bell(ish) curve with a very wide range of possible values. That typical range does not say anything about the investing or economic environment of the times. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The IPO Frenzy to Come

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Published February 15, 2019

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Investors often forget that markets are finite in their resources available, and investors must choose where to place their money. Sometimes the money flows into stocks, sometimes into bonds, etc. It’s simple supply and demand. We noted recently how much money was flowing INTO bonds despite a strong stock market rebound. (more…)

Weekly Update

How a market rally begins and keeps going

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Published January 27, 2017

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A stock market rally is rarely about any single thing. While one event, news item, or good market day can certainly change the tone of the market, it takes a full menu of inputs turning positive to sustain and build a lasting rally. Such as been the case over the past three months. This overview of the past three months provides a good general display of how a stock market rally gets going and stays going. Whether this rally marks more time and higher prices for beyond three months is anybody’s guess. (more…)