Published January 30, 2026
One of the projected victims of AI is the land of software. Investors believe, perhaps incorrectly, that AI will make large-scale software platforms unnecessary. Who needs a large HR software package when an AI bot can replicate the functionality at a fraction of the cost? So the theory goes. (more…)
Published June 20, 2025
This week we offer a summary of recent market and economic activities from Blaine Rollins and Hamilton Lane:
“The bounce in US equities and high yield credit spreads is a sign that the big White House tariff rates will not hold through year end. Stock and corporate bond investors are betting that margins will be safe, and that earnings will not be damaged. The government might bark about tariffs, but they will not bite because Americans want their goods available and affordable, and no one wants to see US multinational operations shift their exported sales manufacturing overseas. The weak Treasury bond market tells us that higher inflation will stick around as some tariffs remain in place. And the US dollar weakness suggests that owners of businesses and investors are now more concerned about deploying capital into US capex and investment assets. (more…)
Published March 25, 2022
The stock market has settled down quite a lot in recent days as this chart of the volatility index shows. When volatility jumped down over that blue trendline, and kept going down, it was a likely sign that stock investors could breathe a little easier. Nevertheless, we also note that volatility has been generally elevated since mid-November and has a ways to go before true calm returns to the market. (more…)
Published October 15, 2021
There is always plenty of talk about whether the stock market is ‘fairly’ valued, expensive, or cheap. It is a question without an answer; there are only opinions. Because in the marketplace, the price is determined solely by what investors are willing to pay. (more…)
Published March 12, 2021
Below is the most recent analysis from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders. While some have struggled with the seeming disconnect between the stock market and economy over the past year, Ms. Sonders outlines how the market and economy have been much more in sync than we might realize. (more…)
Published October 23, 2020
With the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index as the focus of our models, we spend a lot of time talking about that index and its major components – e.g. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, et al. Another trend in the market, and one that might be poised to outperform the Nasdaq, is the old line industrials. (more…)
Published July 17, 2020
A few miscellaneous notes this week that describe the current market outlook, foggy though it be. Starting at the highest level with the wide range of earnings projections for the S&P 500. Currently, the S&P 500 index trades around 3200. If we look at the chart below, we see a 2021 earnings per share for the S&P 500 range of $135-170. At $135, the S&P 500 is trading at price-earnings ratio of 23, on the high end of “normal”.
Published April 17, 2020
The stock market’s recovery from its March plunge has seen a few groups and stocks rise to the top. Many of those favored groups and stocks are heavyweight members of the Nasdaq 100 stock index, trading under the symbol QQQ. (more…)
Published October 13, 2017
The stock market continued its happiness this week rising to further new highs. This bullishness is certainly rewarding to our subscribers as well as, frankly, anyone fortunate enough to have chosen to invest in the Nasdaq late last year. (more…)