Emerging markets

Weekly Update

Are International Stocks Turning the Corner?

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Published January 6, 2023

 

After the dot.com market crash of 2000-2002, international stocks went on to outperform U.S. stocks until the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. That rise was driven by two factors: 1) the “buildout” of China which pushed any and all commodity-related stocks (e.g. industrials, materials thus emerging markets) higher, and 2) the decline in the dot.com darlings which had become outrageously priced.

It usually happens that the leader of the market in one cycle becomes the laggard in the next as the excess is worked off. So it was post-2002 as the chart below shows with the black line highlighting the period where international stocks outperformed. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Case for a Shift Toward International Stocks

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Published November 27, 2020

Our recent articles have described the market’s sudden shift toward value/cyclical market sectors, like energy and financials, and away from the prior market leaders, namely the tech/consumer FANGMA stocks (e.g. FANGMA = Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Apple). The article below from Delta Research makes the case for a similar shift in market leadership toward non-U.S. markets. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Case for International Markets

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Published August 28, 2020

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The article below from Delta Investment points to the gathering economic and market strength internationally. As noted before, a broader market is a stronger market. The more sectors and markets participate in the market’s rise, the better. For now, our favored Nasdaq index (QQQ) continues to lead the way, powered by the FANGMA trade. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Stands Alone

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Published June 29, 2018

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International and emerging market stocks have displayed disturbing action recently, failing to hold support, giving up a two-year rally, and accelerating a notable downtrend. The chart below highlights the crossover of the 50 and 200-day moving averages. We see on the left side of the chart the circle and line highlighting the prior crossover for emerging markets back in mid-2015. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Battle for the Market’s Next Move Is Happening Now

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Published May 4, 2018

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Frequent stock market participants pay close attention when the price of the stock market indexes approaches the 200-day moving average. This trendline is seen as defining whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend. With the proliferation of mechanical computer-driven trading, trading based on trendlines and other technical chart-based indicators has become quite prevalent. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Was January the Market Peak?

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Published April 27, 2018

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In September of 2007 emerging market stocks ripped higher posting a +10% gain for the month. You would be forgiven for thinking that the market-leading group was merely continuing its 4+ year party, after having already risen four-fold. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Stocks Outside the U.S. Blast Off

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Published December 15, 2017

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Outside the U.S. the post-financial crisis rally has been a halting affair, occurring in two major steps higher. Unlike the U.S., each step was greeted with some misgivings as Europe wrestled with its new currency and European Union financial structure while China’s economy digested a massive wave of growth in the prior decade. (more…)

Weekly Update

Global Stock Rally

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Published March 17, 2017

Financial Planner

Like most investors, we focus mainly on our local market. We are highly attuned to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, the Dow Industrial and Russell 2000. This stock market rally kick-started in November is very much a global phenomenon with recent participation abroad adding more and more fuel. Chart 1 below, of the global stock market index shows the rally bursting forth (out of a cup-with-handle chart formation and/or an inverse head and shoulders as you like). (more…)

Weekly Update

The BRIC is back?

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Published February 10, 2017

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Throughout the 2000s the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China – were stock market leaders riding a boom in commodities driven by China’s expansion. Since that boom peaked in 2008, the group has been out of favor – flat at best, sliding in the case of Russia and Brazil, the two most sensitive to commodity prices. Recently, the BRIC looks like it just might be back as commodity prices get a lift. Most commodities are half or less their peak prices.
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