economy

Uncategorized

Has Peak Earnings Growth Meant Peak Stock Market?

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Published August 6, 2021

Below is an article from Schwab on the connection between earnings and the stock market.

“In what shaped up to be a very impressive first half of the year for both the economy and stock market, stellar earnings growth has been a key ingredient. Coming off stronger-than-expected S&P 500 earnings growth of 53% (year over year) in the first quarter, second-quarter earnings are currently anticipated to grow by 78%, the highest since 2009. That is well higher than the initial consensus estimate of 65%. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Stock Market and the Economy

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Published August 7, 2020

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One of the favorite sources of news and discussion topics in the financial media is the economy and speculation about its future health. Everyone knows that economies, whether local, national or global, repeatedly go through boom and bust cycles. These business cycles affect all of us to some degree but many in the investment community pay particular attention to them because of a fundamental belief that as the economy goes so goes the stock market. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Small Ball

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Published September 29, 2017

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After spending much of the year lagging well behind their large-cap brethren, small caps stocks have caught fire! They are being spurred on by a shift in favored market sectors toward financial and energy companies as well as the announcement (finally!) of a tax cut plan by the Trump Administration. (more…)

Weekly Update

Economic data versus the stock market

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Published May 12, 2017

TimingCube_cartoon051217There is a natural tendency for investors to believe that the stock market will follow economic trends.  What some people fail to realize, at least initially, is that investors are looking out into the future and the expected movement in the economy.  Only when an economic datapoint shows up that is at odds with that expected outlook do stocks react.  The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) seeks to measure how those datapoints are matching up to what has been expected.  (more…)