Bear Market

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Bear Market Perspectives

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Published March 27, 2020

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This week, as we hunker down and ‘shelter-in-place’, we offer an assortment of bear market observations. First, we will start with noted market observer Josh Brown’s views on whether the stock market has seen its worst days yet. That is followed by Dan Sullivan’s more historical view on bear markets. We remind readers that Wall Street is in New York City, which has been on the front lines of the virus in the USA over the past few days and weeks. It’s no surprise, then, that the investment community in NYC will feel more besieged by the virus news than some other parts of the country. Keep that context in mind as you read. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Coming Recession

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Published March 13, 2020

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This week the stock market made it crystal clear that it is fully expecting a recession in the coming months. Markets have delivered the second fastest decline in history, second only to a drop during the Great Depression. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Winding Road to a Strong Year

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Published January 10, 2020

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Rarely has a +30% gain felt so lackluster. The year of 2019 closed with that substantial gain, one that registers in the top tenth of all market years. Yet those of us who watch the markets day-in, day-out and seek to follow the market’s trend viewed it as a play in three distinct acts, with only the final four months of the year delivering any real upside. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Where the Market Stands Now

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Published February 8, 2019

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Our FPResearch website publishes a couple of composite Broad Market Indicators. These composites include some 20 component indicators to provide a pictorial view of market health. While the short to intermediate term indicators have recovered and look strong, the substantial damage caused to the market in the October-December selloff is reflected in the more cautious long-term reading. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Was This Historic October Selloff the Beginning of a Bear Market?

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Published November 2, 2018

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October is one of the two best months of the year here in Austin, Texas (the other being April). “Best” being defined as a break from the sweltering heat that drags along from May through September. In April and October, skies are sunny, temperatures are moderate, and our city is a joy. However, this year, we have experienced unprecedented rainfall that has washed away much of our prized October. The result of all the rain has been a swollen, mud-filled river through our city that has overwhelmed our water treatment facilities causing us to spend a week boiling water if we wanted to use it. It’s been a dramatic unraveling of our normally blissful month.

The stock market has experienced its own October unraveling. After a period of immense calm, stock investors have been rocked by a crushing series of volatile trading days, most often leaving market indexes heavily in the red. The sharp selloff ranks among the top 10 most damaging 35-day periods in the past 65 years. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Bear Awakens and TimingCube Responds Well

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Published February 9, 2018

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After two years of nearly non-stop gains punctuated by a vertical ascent to kick off 2018, the stock market finally ran out of gas this week. Those two years brought investors a +60% return in the S&P 500 and a +75% rise in our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index. This rally was of historic length and ease, with volatility dormant. This week, the bears got their long-awaited time to shine. Not one but two days of 1000 point plunges in the Dow Jones Industrial Average – each a record for raw point declines in the index. Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning saw volatility unleashed in a fury never seen before; the evaporation of one or more volatility-based securities causing a run on the volatility futures market. (more…)