Weekly Update

Earnings and Commodities


Published April 22, 2022

 

A couple of odds and ends from our reading this week. First, Delta’s observations from the beginning of this earnings season. We note that investors are clearly on edge as the Fed drives interest rates higher, removing the free money that has served as market rocket fuel for the past few years. It will take a few months for the impact of that to shake out. Some argue that a recession is the ultimate result of the Fed’s actions. (more…)

Weekly Update

Bonds Are Struggling


Published April 15, 2022

 

This week, with all the talk about inverted yield curves and interest rates, we shift our attention from stocks to the newfound misery experienced in the bond market. Money is leaving bonds and rolling into any stock with a tasty yield – e.g. dividend and utility stocks, real estate. (more…)

Weekly Update

Yield Curve Inverts but Recession Still a Ways Off


Published April 8, 2022

 

The recent inversion in the yield curve has certainly generated a lot of headlines. The inversion occurs when short-term interest rates become higher than long-term interest rates. The driver of the inversion is usually a Federal Reserve raising rates while investors are skeptical about the long-term economic strength. Thus, the interest rate curve reflects a sort of temporary spike in rates. This inversion often suggests a recession is upcoming as the economic cycle has overheated to the point where the Fed has had to step in to slow it down. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Review of Economic Indicators


Published April 1, 2022

 

This week saw a strong move in growth stocks with breakouts in small-cap growth, software, semiconductors, real estate and other beaten-down growth and cyclical areas. This is a positive development for the broader stock market as the rally expands its reach beyond the commodity and defensive leaders of the past few months. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Bit of Calm Returns to Stocks


Published March 25, 2022

 

The stock market has settled down quite a lot in recent days as this chart of the volatility index shows. When volatility jumped down over that blue trendline, and kept going down, it was a likely sign that stock investors could breathe a little easier. Nevertheless, we also note that volatility has been generally elevated since mid-November and has a ways to go before true calm returns to the market. (more…)

Weekly Update

Is the Bottom In?


Published March 18, 2022

 

 

The question below, “Could we be near a market bottom?”, posed in the most recent letter from Blaine Rollins, coincided with what appeared to be a complete washout in European and Chinese, stocks. Whereas the emergence of the Omicron strain of coronavirus may have kickstarted the negative market proceedings back in November, the more recent events have mostly been happening outside the U.S. with the war in Ukraine and China’s covid crackdown adding further fuel to the downtrend. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market Concerns Continue to Build


Published March 11, 2022

 

The market mess enters its fourth month with Chinese stocks now getting hit (down -15% in the first 10 days of this month). Credit spreads, a proxy for risk concern in the bond market, have risen sharply as the chart below shows. So plenty of reasons for hand-wringing, all of which builds to a buy point for stocks, eventually. (more…)

Weekly Update

Markets Upended by Russian Action


Published March 4, 2022

Another week, and another twist in our market narrative. Investors are trying to parse so many crosscurrents, we can all be forgiven for not knowing which end is up these days. We are now 100% certain the Fed will raise interest rates at their March meeting. However, that once-possible 0.50% rate hike went out the window when Russian troops marched into Ukraine. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Stock Market Is at a Critical Juncture


Published February 25, 2022

 

This week’s acceleration of market turmoil had us reaching back into the bag for a little history. Below is a table of single-day declines in the S&P 500. First, note how clustered these selloffs are; all but one taking place around three major events – the global financial crisis, the pandemic, and 1987 market crash. (more…)