Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Interest Rates Try to Rise Once Again

Published September 21, 2018


After first popping above 3% back in May, U.S. 10-year Treasury rates returned to that closely-watched level this week, clearing 3% for the second time. The first time rates eclipsed 3% the rally in rates lasted barely a week before investors poured back into bonds pushing yields downward. A push upward in both June and late July failed to clear 3%. Rates have moved quickly in the month of September from 2.85% to 3%+ in a straight shot. This week’s rally finally did the trick, blowing past 3% and setting the stage for perhaps a run to 4%. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A Smattering of Concerning Charts

Published September 7, 2018


It is said that stock markets climb a wall of worry. As concerns dissipate, investors feel more free to take risk and buy stocks. A sustainable market rally takes hold when the worries are replaced by a “Goldilocks” scenario where market participants view the near-term future as favorable for stock investing. They buy shares with little concern. The lack of concern reaches a point of complacency where investors are undervaluing potential risks. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Where the Next Market Crisis Might Come From

Published August 31,2018


With the 10-year anniversary of the onset of the global financial crisis just weeks away, now is a good time to ask where the next global economic crisis might come from. To be clear: We’re not sounding any alarms here. We don’t think a crisis is imminent. But we do like to keep our eyes on the horizon.
Reforms to the global financial system in the wake of the 2008–2009 crisis mean the next crisis probably won’t look like the last one. So what will it look like? (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Some Say Market Risks Are Rising

Published August 24, 2018


In this week where the S&P 500 touched a new high, we thought it would be interesting to hear a more cautionary view. Below we reprint an excellent overview of the recent issues in Turkey (along with comments on the general economy and market) from the folks at Charles Schwab. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Investment Models + ETFs – Timingcube Was There When It All Began

Published August 17, 2018


TimingCube’s timing was very fortunate. We started publishing our market-beating signals in the summer of 2001, a year or so after the bloom had been ripped off the rose of the dot.com market boom. Investors had enjoyed a nearly non-stop romp through the latter half of the 1990s, with the stock market more than doubling over a 5-year period. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Worry Warts A-Building

Published August 10, 2018


While the overall picture for stocks remains decidedly positive, we were struck by a building wall of worry in the two article reprints below this week (both from reporters at Marketwatch.com). Of course, the wall of worry provides fuel for further stock price increases as the skeptics give in to the bulls. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Timing Matters so Very Much

Published July 27, 2018


Below is an interesting article by Nick Maggiulli pointing out that time, YOUR personal time – as in when you are alive, matters very much as to your life (and investing) experience. Imagine the difference between having your primary investing years occurring during the go-go days of the 1990s, retiring in 1999, turning over your hefty equity gains from the 1980s and 1990s into a heavily bond/income portfolio. The 600%+ return of the stock market from 1984-1999 would have delivered a nice retirement package. If you were only five years younger, however, your retirement package would be fully HALF of the prior example as your primary investing years would have spanned the dot-com market crash. (more…)