Published March 9, 2018
While the stock market broadly continues to digest the solid gains of 2017 and investors ponder whether to add to those gains in 2018, we present some areas of the market where strength is being seen. (more…)
Higher Interest Rates Won’t Kill the Stock Market
Published March 2, 2018
This week we share some good information from a webcast given by Charlie Bilello of Pension Partners. The first chart shows the downward trend of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Note the green arrows as the yield hits the upper portion of the channel. We are sitting right at the top of the channel. Do we want to see yields break through to the upside? (more…)
A Wall of Worry Is Building
Published February 23, 2018
A recent commentary from the folks at Schwab provides a good overview of where markets stand right now. We have pointed out in recent weekly blog posts the sharp rise in interest rates that has occurred since September. (more…)
Stocks Rebound at a Key Trendline
Published February 16, 2018
After dramatically breaking down the past two weeks, stocks this week more than found their footing in a textbook case of technical analysis and program trading. (more…)
The Bear Awakens and TimingCube Responds Well
Published February 9, 2018
After two years of nearly non-stop gains punctuated by a vertical ascent to kick off 2018, the stock market finally ran out of gas this week. Those two years brought investors a +60% return in the S&P 500 and a +75% rise in our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index. This rally was of historic length and ease, with volatility dormant. This week, the bears got their long-awaited time to shine. Not one but two days of 1000 point plunges in the Dow Jones Industrial Average – each a record for raw point declines in the index. Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning saw volatility unleashed in a fury never seen before; the evaporation of one or more volatility-based securities causing a run on the volatility futures market. (more…)
Humans Are Built to Be Bad Investors
Published February 2, 2018
This week we offer a post on the psychology of investing from Urban Carmel’s blog. The emotional challenges presented here are a major reason why we at TimingCube strongly prefer our quantitative models that REMOVE the emotion from our investing decisions. (more…)
Biotech Joins the Nasdaq Par
Published January 26, 2018
Almost a full eleven months ago we wrote about a coming change of fortune for biotech stocks. It appeared back in March 2017 that the group, after 18 months of pain and an almost 50% plunge in price, was about to launch a new bullish period. It took quite a bit longer than expected, but we are pleased to announce that this week the group finally achieved full-out liftoff! (more…)
The Dow Industrial’s Badass Stock
Published January 19, 2018
The stock market’s near non-stop rise over the past two years has been led by the FAANG stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google (Alphabet). This handful of tech/consumer heavyweights accounts for well over a third of the market-leading Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). They have risen between +50% and +140% since the beginning of 2016, the start date of the current rally. While the rapid ascent and overwhelming near-monopoly power of these transforming companies is well-known by all stock investors, there is another very big company that eclipsed them all … and by a wide margin. (more…)
Investors Begin Worrying About an Inverted Yield Curve … and Recession
Published January 12, 2018
With the global economy firing on all cylinders it’s hard to believe investors would find anything to worry about. But they have. For years now investors have wondered when and how the era of near-zero interest rates would end. Are we now on the cusp of seeing how the backside of the Fed’s unprecedented monetary policy easing impacts markets? (more…)
Late-Cycle Sectors Beginning to Shine
Published January 5, 2018
Over the past year, there have been numerous articles telling us that the U.S. economy is entering the “late-cycle” phase, a period of about 18 months characterized by rising inflation (and therefore rising interest rates), higher commodity prices, and positive though waning economic growth. (more…)
