Weekly Update

Making Sense of the Market’s Noise

Published March 17, 2023


The tumult over the past week+ in the banking sector has taken over financial markets. We are publishing two good overview articles of the action. Our view is simple: markets are prone to emotional outbursts swinging between fear and greed. Rather than get caught up in the emotions of the moment, we have long found it more profitable to distill market action down to a few simple inputs related to price and volume. Are market participants, in aggregate, buying or selling, and to what degree. Our models then take a position based on decades-long analyses of the price-volume data, a period incorporating very many emotion-driven markets, both up and down. (more…)

Weekly Update

Looking at the Supply of Money

Published March 10, 2023


Though interest rates get all the headlines, changes in the supply of money can have substantial impacts on the economy and asset prices. Below is Delta’s analysis of changes in the supply of money and how that might impact inflation.

“The January money supply declined by 1.7% versus a year ago. Money supply (M2) is a measure of money including coins, currency, check and savings deposits, travelers checks and money market deposit accounts. This is both the biggest yearly decline and the first time ever it has contracted in consecutive months. The monthly rate of change has been falling consistently since mid-2021 when it peaked at a 27% growth rate. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Benefits of Higher Interest Rates

Published February 24, 2023


Below are a couple of articles about markets and the economy we thought you might find interesting. First, Delta Research talks about the benefits of higher interest rates. Second, Franklin Templeton’s ClearBridge Group discusses how housing as an economic driver has evolved from the period of the Great Financial Crisis. (more…)

Weekly Update

Stronger Economic Growth – Good and Bad for Markets

Published February 17, 2023


Below, our friends from Delta offer a summary of recent data which shows the economy being stronger than many expected. But that strength is pushing interest rates upward in a renewed push. The upward thrust in rates could well undo the stock market rally so far in 2023. Broad market analysts remain very split over the outlook for the economy and markets. We think now is a particularly important time to have a tactical approach to investing, with the ability to quickly adjust to changing conditions. Our models offer just such an approach. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Summary of Corporate Earnings

Published February 10, 2023


Below is the most recent update from Schwab with a focus on corporate earnings season thus far. Schwab has maintained a cautious stance in recent months believing that markets were fraught with more risk than investors were pricing in. Investors face a ton of dissonance right now with outlooks from various experts all over the place. There is a complete lack of agreement; hence, uncertainty for investors amid the possibility that the strong move so far in 2023 has largely been a short-covering rally rather than any concerted fresh buying by optimistic investors. (more…)

Weekly Update

Which Is Right: The Stock Market or Economic Indicators?

Published February 3, 2023


Below, we augment an article by Lance Roberts considering the conundrum investors face re: a strong stock market in the face of lots of recessionary indicators.

“Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. That leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in stocks but also not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. (more…)

Weekly Update

The January Trifecta Indicator

Published January 27, 2023


Back in January 2013, the Stock Traders Almanac created the “January Indicator Trifecta” by combining three indicators that occur over a five week period: 1) the Santa Claus Rally indicator, 2) the First Five Days Early Warning System and 3) the full-month January Barometer reading.

When all three of the “January Indicator Trifecta” readings are up the S&P 500 has closed the year with a gain 90% of the time, 28 of 31 years, with an average gain of 17.5%.

When any of the three are down the year’s results are reduced.

When all three are down, the S&P is down almost half the time (down 3 of 8 years with an average loss of -3.6%). (more…)

Weekly Update

Business Cycle Analysis

Published January 20, 2023


Fidelity Investments presents information in the context of the longer-term business cycle. The current look at the business cycle shows all global economies in or approaching recession. (more…)

Weekly Update

Overseas Stocks Are Rallying. Is the Bottom In?

Published January 13, 2023

Stocks have been moving higher. What began in Europe, spread to China, and is now beginning to show up elsewhere. Here are some charts displaying the shift in market tone in these areas. First up, a clear uptrend has formed over the past 3+ months in Europe. Fears of a natural gas shortage during the winter simply did not materialize. (more…)