Published June 9, 2017
A couple of months ago we posted on our blog an article titled “Risk Rises” which talked about the VIX volatility index shooting up almost +50% over a period of a few days. At the time it seemed this sharp jump in market volatility might presage a shift in market tone. (more…)
Published June 2, 2017
We are now a decade into the Federal Reserve’s latest period of monetary policy seeking to stimulate the economy. Prior periods of monetary policy focused on pushing very short-term interest rates higher or lower to accelerate or decelerate the economy and/or inflation. The unprecedented impacts of the financial crisis forced the Fed to adopt additional monetary policy tools, such as “quantitative easing” or “QE” for short. (more…)
Published May 26, 2017
One of the frequent narratives about this stock market is how it just keeps on rolling higher and must soon change its character. That there is a gravitational pull that will bring it back to something lower – e.g. a more “reasonable” valuation, a reset of time, etc. In consideration of the notion that this bull market is now some eight years old, we offer the recent article from market observer Mark Hulbert discussing whether this bull market is indeed quite as old as some might argue: (more…)
Published May 19, 2017
When we talk about risk we usually think about our potential for losing money. But there is obviously a very big difference between losing 1% of our portfolio and losing 10% of it. We can use the size of the investment to manage our risk. To do this, we determine how much money we are willing to “lose”. (more…)
Published May 12, 2017
There is a natural tendency for investors to believe that the stock market will follow economic trends. What some people fail to realize, at least initially, is that investors are looking out into the future and the expected movement in the economy. Only when an economic datapoint shows up that is at odds with that expected outlook do stocks react. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) seeks to measure how those datapoints are matching up to what has been expected. (more…)
Published May 5, 2017
When our most recent TimingCube Turbo Model Buy signal was sent out on December 6 we can bet that no one expected it would still be in place five months later with a gain (using the QQQ) of over +18%. While the trend, especially on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), remains up, and strong earnings growth reports coming in this month appear supportive of the market, some fund managers are nervous. (more…)
Published April 28, 2017
An excellent overview of the current state of the stock market from the folks at Schwab:
Investors appear to be taking another look at the risks they are willing to take, while also considering whether the reflation story may not develop as hoped. Reflation is the process of getting economic growth and price broadly back to pre-recession levels. While progress has been made, growth is still not accelerating. First quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to come in around a 1% annualized level according to Bloomberg. (more…)
Published April 21, 2017
The rise of robo-advisors over the past five years is not surprising given the nearly non-stop upward trajectory of stocks. Investors have been lulled into a state of complacency assuming the investment waters are always so calm and just riding the market indexes is a perfectly fine way to invest. The article below comes from an organization who, like us here at TimingCube, believes that robo-advisors and their buy-and-hold models are an accident waiting to happen. (more…)
Published April 14,2017
This week brought the return of geopolitical concerns to the stock market. The volatility “fear” index spiked in the wake of the U.S. bombing of Syria, deployment of a U.S. warship to the waters off North Korea, and tougher talk from the Trump Administration toward Russia. It’s been a good six months since the stock market has found anything to worry about. (more…)
Published April 7, 2017
Below is an excerpt from a recent commentary by investment firm Per Sterling that we think provides a good overview of the perspective of many market analysts at this point. Of course, TimingCube’s models are not driven by any of the fundamental or valuation factors described in this article; but instead are focused on price and volume in the market (e.g. supply and demand). (more…)
