Published March 4, 2022
Another week, and another twist in our market narrative. Investors are trying to parse so many crosscurrents, we can all be forgiven for not knowing which end is up these days. We are now 100% certain the Fed will raise interest rates at their March meeting. However, that once-possible 0.50% rate hike went out the window when Russian troops marched into Ukraine. (more…)
Published February 25, 2022
This week’s acceleration of market turmoil had us reaching back into the bag for a little history. Below is a table of single-day declines in the S&P 500. First, note how clustered these selloffs are; all but one taking place around three major events – the global financial crisis, the pandemic, and 1987 market crash. (more…)
Published February 18, 2022
Stocks remain fully in the midst of a correction, searching for a bottom that may not come until after the Federal Reserve takes action in March. In the meantime, our friends at Delta back up and survey the broader picture to comment on market behavior during various interest rate/economic growth scenarios. (more…)
Published February 11, 2022
In the face of a fair amount of gloom as the stock market continues struggling to find traction, we turn to a positive piece from our friends at DIM. They walk through some of the supports for the stock market that, over time, might provide some lift once interest rate outlooks settle down. (more…)
Published February 4, 2022
Stocks remain troubled. The past ten trading days have seen the market pushed all over the place with huge swings depending on whether investors were pleased by company earnings reports. Pandemic favorite Netflix issued soft subscriber growth guidance and was hammered – giving up two years’ worth of stock gains.
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Published January 28, 2022
This week we are reviewing some interesting data from a recent presentation made by CFRA. The three charts tell a possible story for how this year will play out. First, after a strong year in the market in 2021, we have seen stocks hit a wall, tumbling hard throughout January. This selloff following a strong period is common, at least in the short-term. (more…)
Published January 21, 2022
Markets have struggled mightily so far in 2022 as looming Fed policy changes merge with Omicron-fueled slowdowns and Russia-Ukraine tensions to put investors on edge. Growth stocks, presumably more sensitive to rising interest rates, have stumbled the most. (more…)
Published January 14, 2022
Last week we discussed the interest rate surge taking place at the beginning of 2022. This surge has driven a major shift in favored sectors. Cyclical “value” sectors like energy and financials have become the market darlings. (more…)
Published January 7, 2022
Markets have kicked off 2022 with a bit of a bang. Interest rates have surged higher as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will act quickly to tamp down nascent inflation and return interest rates to their pre-pandemic levels. (more…)
Published December 31, 2021
We can think of few other aspects of life that have changed so dramatically from the pandemic as employment and the job market. Radiating outward from the changes in the job market, wages are the most critical component of inflation, a huge buzzword in 2021. If wages have been permanently kick-started into a regime of growth, then inflation will remain far more than a transitory influence in the economy and markets. (more…)