Published June 14, 2019
Timeframe matters when we are analyzing markets. While we might hear that stocks are in the midst of a strong rally, a look at the broader stock market over a wider timeframe says that most stocks are treading water.
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Published June 7, 2019
After struggling for the month of May, this week the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) accelerated its momentum downward and took a decidedly bearish turn. The stock market trades on perceptions for the future health of the economy and corporate earnings. Those perceptions have been skewed negative by the battles in trade. However, the stock market is beginning to get more and more data suggesting that weakness ahead is more than just a result of a change in perception. (more…)
Published May 31, 2019
At the beginning of this month of May we concluded our weekly blog with the following:
“Were smaller, riskier stocks to find strength, it would be a real boost to the market’s rally effort as there is clearly some “wall of worry” built into this market.”
By the end of the month, the market’s answer was clear: there would be no boost from small and midcap stocks. (more…)
Published May 24, 2019
Stocks have spent a third consecutive week wrestling with the implications of a longer trade standoff with China. The excerpt below from Schwab’s research team outlines some of the reasons why the market has reacted badly to the recent seeming deterioration in trade talks. (more…)
Published May 17, 2019
This week was a perfect example of the current market environment. Monday’s plunge in the stock market continued the market’s negative reaction to recent trade talk news, as talks with China looked to experience a serious setback. (more…)
Published May 10, 2019
After weeks of calm, stocks were rattled this week as the expected trade agreement between the U.S. and China appeared to encounter serious pressure. Entering the month of May, the Trump Administration was encouraging investors with comments that the agreement was in the “final laps” with “productive” meetings being held. However, this week the tone out of the Administration changed dramatically. (more…)
Published May 3, 2019
Recent headlines tell us the “stock market” has returned to record high levels. We put that in quotes because closer observers of the broader universe of stocks will tell you that it’s predominantly the larger companies whose stocks have moved higher. The indexes of midcap and smallcap companies remain well below their highs of last September. (more…)
Published April 26, 2019
As much as commentators try to explain stock price fluctuations in terms of economics, earnings, and other fundamental drivers, there is an equal helping of pure human emotion involved – the “fear and greed” factor. (more…)
Published April 19, 2019
Stock markets outside the U.S. have joined U.S. stocks in bouncing back strongly since Christmas Eve (see chart below). However, as the following commentary from Schwab discusses, there are reasons for concern about this rally. (more…)
Published April 12, 2019
Below is a recent market and economic commentary from the folks at Schwab. As with many of their comments this year, they remain quite cautious on the stock market despite its run higher. Here, they explain what they see that causes them some pause: (more…)
