Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Small Ball


Published September 29, 2017

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After spending much of the year lagging well behind their large-cap brethren, small caps stocks have caught fire! They are being spurred on by a shift in favored market sectors toward financial and energy companies as well as the announcement (finally!) of a tax cut plan by the Trump Administration. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A New Bull Market


Published September 22, 2017

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While many in the industry speculate on the coming end to a years-long bull market, there are others who argue that the bull market has just begun. How does this disagreement come about? (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

U.S. Economic Indicators Show Strength


Published September 15, 2017

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Below is a really good overview of economic activity in the U.S. looking at some lower level data.

When times are good, people go to Vegas. Since the recession in 2008, Las Vegas convention attendance has climbed to new highs. At the current pace, convention attendance and overall Vegas visitation will set new records in 2017. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Non-stop Goodness


Published September 8, 2017

timingcube_cartoon090817The article below, excerpted from Charles Schwab, displays just how strong global equities have been this year.

Chart 1 below is a table of global stock market returns by month using the MSCI All-Cap World Index (ACWI). August came close to breaking the uninterrupted streak of monthly gains for global stocks. This year has seen the only time the index ever (since its inception 30 years ago) posted a gain in every one of the first eight months of the year, as you can see in the heat map of monthly returns below. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

All’s Well in the World


Published September 1, 2017

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We have written a few times this summer about the global force behind the stock market’s unceasing rally so far in 2017. August proved once again how resilient this rally is, with stocks dropping back a bit only to be relaunched to new highs by the end of the month. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

No Record Highs Here


Published August 25, 2017

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Below from Delta is a good overview of the gap between different stock indexes and how large that gap has been this year. In reading this remember that small-cap value stocks are the best performing group over the history of the stock market. That this group is so substantially under-performing might mean something. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Market on the Edge?


Published August 18, 2017

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Stocks took a potentially nasty turn this week. Whether that turn leads into a sharper decline will be the question facing investors in the month of September – historically known for providing its share of upset. (more…)

Weekly Update

When Yield Spreads Get Crazy


Published August 11, 2017

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Yield spreads provide a view into the risk appetite of market participants. If the spread between low risk and high risk bonds is large, investors are concerned and want to receive more compensation for taking on the added risk. As investors become more comfortable with the market and begin to view it as increasingly benign, they require less compensation. In times of extreme market complacency, the relationships between risk and return appear to almost break down. And so it is with European high yield (aka “junk”) bonds today. (more…)

Weekly Update

Long-term Models and Metrics Can Lead to Misreading the Market


Published August 4, 2017

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There are a number of folks talking about how overvalued this stock market is. Many of them refer to the metrics, indicators, and models discussed below. Read through this analysis from Jill Mislinski and we will return for some perspective at the end.

“Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
• The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline

(more…)

Weekly Update

The Problem with Investing in Stocks


Published July 28, 2017

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We found Josh Brown’s thoughts on the current market interesting. It could be extrapolated to be a comment on investing much of the time.

The negatives:

The US stock market is now selling for close to a record high valuation. Volatility for the S&P 500 is currently registering record low readings. Brilliant hedge fund managers like David Einhorn are ringing the alarm bells over the worship of growth stocks without earnings. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a $90 billion cash hoard, struggling to find reasonably valued assets to invest it in. Bonds are no bargain given today’s yields vs inflation, and that’s assuming rates are just steady – if they rise more quickly than expected, there will be some pain. (more…)