Published December 28, 2018
In January of this year, no one would have guessed it would end like this. (more…)
Stocks Struggle While Our Turbo Model Shines
Published December 21, 2018
As we go to press this week, a full 1/3 of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 stocks are in a bear market – typically defined as a decline of -20% or more. (more…)
A Market in Search of Leadership
Published December 14, 2018
2018 was supposed to be the year that financial stocks took charge. Rising interest rates were expected to provide profitable fuel for banks to substantially increase profits. Instead, financial stocks are some of the worst performers of the year. (more…)
Bonds Rip Higher as Stock Selloff Persists
Published December 7, 2018
Stock investors were reminded this week that the market remains unhealthy. After approaching a retest of this market correction’s lows a couple of weeks ago, stocks ripped higher last week to recover all of the ground given up the week before. This week began well. (more…)
A Sea of Red as Almost All Asset Classes Lose Money in 2018 (So Far)
Published November 30, 2018
Recently, the following chart has been making the rounds. It shows that a full 90% of all 70 asset classes tracked by Deutsche Bank are delivering NEGATIVE returns for 2018 (as of mid-November). (more…)
Despite the Selling, the Market’s Uptrend Remains Intact … for Now
Published November 23, 2018
A recent post from Ben Carlson seeks to put the furious selling of October/November (to date) in a broader context, noting that many of the stocks and sectors that are being unmercifully hammered by the bears were the ones who had enjoyed exceptional gains over the past couple of years. (more…)
When Markets Come Unglued, Technical Factors Become More Important
Published November 16, 2018
Stocks have brought smiles to the faces of technical analysts everywhere. Per the textbook, stocks rebounded right back to the underside of key technical reference points before selling commenced anew. That’s point number one for the technicians. (more…)
Stocks React to Election Results and a Split Congress
Published November 9, 2018
It was no surprise that stocks rallied this week once the midterm elections had passed. Just as in 2016, and before most elections, investors become cautious ahead of elections. They usually breathe a sigh of relief afterwards. Stocks have gone higher after EVERY midterm election over the past almost 70 years, on an annual basis. With this election producing a split in Congress, is that bullish or bearish for stocks? The following research provides some data on that question: (more…)
Was This Historic October Selloff the Beginning of a Bear Market?
Published November 2, 2018
October is one of the two best months of the year here in Austin, Texas (the other being April). “Best” being defined as a break from the sweltering heat that drags along from May through September. In April and October, skies are sunny, temperatures are moderate, and our city is a joy. However, this year, we have experienced unprecedented rainfall that has washed away much of our prized October. The result of all the rain has been a swollen, mud-filled river through our city that has overwhelmed our water treatment facilities causing us to spend a week boiling water if we wanted to use it. It’s been a dramatic unraveling of our normally blissful month.
The stock market has experienced its own October unraveling. After a period of immense calm, stock investors have been rocked by a crushing series of volatile trading days, most often leaving market indexes heavily in the red. The sharp selloff ranks among the top 10 most damaging 35-day periods in the past 65 years. (more…)
No, the Stock Market Does Not Predict Recessions
Published October 26, 2018
Below is a good post from Ben Carlson regarding the ability of the stock market to predict recessions. The data says the stock market is bad at such predictions, rising half or more of the time in a 3-6 month window ahead of the onset of a recession. So, if the stock market “looks ahead” by 6-9 months as we are often told it does, the market is no better than a coin flip in foreseeing recessions. It may not look ahead all that well is the point. (more…)
