Weekly Update

Inflation Has Plateaued


Published November 4, 2022

 

Stock investors had a bit of a panic attack this week. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued hammering markets with his inflation-fighting warrior pose, a pose that most all market-watchers now agree he was late in adopting. Powell is making up for lost time, of course, by ratcheting up interest rates at a breakneck pace. The sudden acceleration has been a very cold shower for some business processes with private equity and venture capital investors reducing their activity by a third or more in the most recent quarter. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Housing Market Stumbles


Published October 28, 2022

Below we share a good summary of the housing market. As with the stock market, the woes experienced recently are really only reversing the crazy gains of the prior year. Compared to pre-pandemic, we would guess that most homeowners remain in very good shape and sitting on better-than-average appreciation (aka: inflation) in their assets. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Market Bottoms Well Before the Economy Does


Published October 21, 2022

 

These days, there is much talk about a coming recession. By the time the recession gets here, if it does, the stock market will have already suffered much of its decline and will be near its low point. The article below from an analyst at JP Morgan presents a historical perspective of the timing between recessions and stock market bottoms. (more…)

Weekly Update

Corporate Earnings Are the Next Shoe to Drop


Published October 14, 2022

 

Investors await corporate earnings data over the next few weeks with concerns high that declining earnings outlooks will be the next shoe to drop on stocks. The chart below highlights where we have been on corporate earnings and how things have changed. (more…)

Weekly Update

Spiking Interest Rates Drive Housing Slowdown


Published October 7, 2022

 

The market is obsessed with the impact of sharply rising interest rates. The brief below from Delta outlines some of the impacts of this sharp change in Fed policy and what investors are looking for to turn the markets around.

“The Federal Reserve is now projecting a terminal Fed Funds rate of about 4.6%. This is up from about 3.8% over the past month. On August 1, the 10-year US treasury was about 2.6%. Today, it is approaching 4.0% – a dramatic increase in a short time. (more…)

Weekly Update

Inflation Is Rolling Over but So Too Are Corporate Earnings(?).


Published September 30, 2022

 

Blaine Rollins outlines the key questions facing investors these days. Here are some excerpts from his recent commentary:

“You can see the light at the end, but how much risk will you take to run down to the other end? Big returns await if you can only make it to the other side. But there is always the possibility that you make it part way and the train called ‘recession’ interrupts your path. (more…)

Weekly Update

Up and Down – The Waves of a Bear Market


Published September 23, 2022

 

There are thousands of ways to invest. We prefer to remove the emotional component and use mechanical models to drive our investing. Some others like to rely on seasonal cycle analysis. One of those cycles is the four-year presidential election cycle shown below. The second year of the presidential cycle tends to be the worst of the four years. The return historically has been flat through the first nine months of the second year. This year, we are well below that flat historical trend. But the presidential election cycle suggests we are nearing the best performance of the four years. The period from the midterm election to the following May tends to offer outstanding performance. That would be a substantial change in market tone from where we are in today’s market where caution and negative sentiment rule. (more…)

Weekly Update

Interest Rates and Economic Uncertainty Keep a Lid on the Market


Published September 16, 2022

 

Investors have their hands full these days trying to parse the conflicting economic reports. The labor market tells us that unemployment is at record low levels. Wages are rising for the first time in a very long time. Yet, fear is growing that the economy may be softening, while inflation remains higher than investors would like (fueled by those same rising wages). This week was a microcosm of the pitched battle between bulls and bears.

We will look at the market’s largest and perhaps most influential stock, Apple. (more…)

Weekly Update

Stocks Stuck in a Holding Pattern


Published September 9, 2022

As stocks continue wrestling with many competing narratives, here is Delta’s summary of where things stand.

“The re-re-re-adjustment of interest rate expectations higher following Fed Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech two weeks ago triggered a significant selloff in stocks. Then the news deteriorated further. (more…)

Weekly Update

Two Sector Charts Give Us Overall Market Clues


Published September 2, 2022

 

Since Fed Chair Powell’s comments a week ago markets have been off-kilter. The notion of a Fed shift to lowering interest rates in the first half of next year has been squashed, replaced by expectations that rates will remain flat at an elevated level for most of 2023. The bearish narrative is that come October corporate earnings reports will deal further evidence of a notable slowdown in the U.S. economy. Slowing economic growth combined with stubborn interest rate policy makes for an unhappy stock market. The bullish case points to very solid employment numbers and generally good consumer financial health with expectations that any recession will be brief and shallow. (more…)