Published March 25, 2022
The stock market has settled down quite a lot in recent days as this chart of the volatility index shows. When volatility jumped down over that blue trendline, and kept going down, it was a likely sign that stock investors could breathe a little easier. Nevertheless, we also note that volatility has been generally elevated since mid-November and has a ways to go before true calm returns to the market. (more…)
Published March 18, 2022
The question below, “Could we be near a market bottom?”, posed in the most recent letter from Blaine Rollins, coincided with what appeared to be a complete washout in European and Chinese, stocks. Whereas the emergence of the Omicron strain of coronavirus may have kickstarted the negative market proceedings back in November, the more recent events have mostly been happening outside the U.S. with the war in Ukraine and China’s covid crackdown adding further fuel to the downtrend. (more…)
Published March 11, 2022
The market mess enters its fourth month with Chinese stocks now getting hit (down -15% in the first 10 days of this month). Credit spreads, a proxy for risk concern in the bond market, have risen sharply as the chart below shows. So plenty of reasons for hand-wringing, all of which builds to a buy point for stocks, eventually. (more…)
Published March 4, 2022
Another week, and another twist in our market narrative. Investors are trying to parse so many crosscurrents, we can all be forgiven for not knowing which end is up these days. We are now 100% certain the Fed will raise interest rates at their March meeting. However, that once-possible 0.50% rate hike went out the window when Russian troops marched into Ukraine. (more…)
Published February 25, 2022
This week’s acceleration of market turmoil had us reaching back into the bag for a little history. Below is a table of single-day declines in the S&P 500. First, note how clustered these selloffs are; all but one taking place around three major events – the global financial crisis, the pandemic, and 1987 market crash. (more…)
Published February 18, 2022
Stocks remain fully in the midst of a correction, searching for a bottom that may not come until after the Federal Reserve takes action in March. In the meantime, our friends at Delta back up and survey the broader picture to comment on market behavior during various interest rate/economic growth scenarios. (more…)
Published February 11, 2022
In the face of a fair amount of gloom as the stock market continues struggling to find traction, we turn to a positive piece from our friends at DIM. They walk through some of the supports for the stock market that, over time, might provide some lift once interest rate outlooks settle down. (more…)
Published February 4, 2022
Stocks remain troubled. The past ten trading days have seen the market pushed all over the place with huge swings depending on whether investors were pleased by company earnings reports. Pandemic favorite Netflix issued soft subscriber growth guidance and was hammered – giving up two years’ worth of stock gains.
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Published January 28, 2022
This week we are reviewing some interesting data from a recent presentation made by CFRA. The three charts tell a possible story for how this year will play out. First, after a strong year in the market in 2021, we have seen stocks hit a wall, tumbling hard throughout January. This selloff following a strong period is common, at least in the short-term. (more…)
Published January 21, 2022
Markets have struggled mightily so far in 2022 as looming Fed policy changes merge with Omicron-fueled slowdowns and Russia-Ukraine tensions to put investors on edge. Growth stocks, presumably more sensitive to rising interest rates, have stumbled the most. (more…)