Weekly Update

Have We Just Witnessed the Start of a New Multi-Year Bull Market?

Published November 20, 2020


The stock market has blasted upward in a very bullish sign for investors. Last week we talked about how value sectors were finding buyers. This week, we offer even more evidence of the new bullishness in the stock market. Driving this bullish attitude is the announcement of coronavirus vaccines. Those announcements have led investors to expect a return to some economic normalcy in the first half of 2021. (more…)

Weekly Update

Investors Nibble on Value Stocks

Published November 13, 2020

Markets this week delivered another burst of buying to the long-lagging value sectors of the market, notably the finance and energy sectors. The buying came on positive test results from a coronavirus vaccine. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Nasdaq Remains Range-Bound, for Now

Published November 6, 2020


We have noted multiple times recently that the post-election market is almost always a very good one; lots of December upside usually as investors breathe a collective sigh of relief that election uncertainty has passed and the country can get back to business. This time we have seen, perhaps, a bit of an early rush as stocks ripped higher on election day and kept on going from there. (more…)

Weekly Update

Markets Reflect the Coronavirus Impact

Published October 30, 2020

Stock markets this week gave up their October rally effort, sinking back to roughly where they began the month. The lack of a government stimulus package took away some of the wind in the market’s sails. European economic restrictions, seeking to limit a resurgence of the coronavirus, took away the rest of that wind. Investors chose to reduce risk. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Old Guard Flexes Some Muscle

Published October 23, 2020


With the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index as the focus of our models, we spend a lot of time talking about that index and its major components – e.g. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, et al. Another trend in the market, and one that might be poised to outperform the Nasdaq, is the old line industrials. (more…)

Weekly Update

Stocks are Looking Forward

Published October 16, 2020

The stock market has a pretty good track record for determining who will win a presidential election.  The indicator looks at the market return over the three months leading up to the election.  A positive return suggests a win for the incumbent.  The data below, going back to 1928, shows an 87% success rate for the stock market in picking the ultimate election victor.

Weekly Update

Signs of Life in the Broader Market

Published October 9, 2020


Over the past few days, we have seen the rally of the past couple of weeks gain some new followers.  Specifically, small and midcap stocks, long the laggards in the market, have seen the growth components of their indexes break out to new highs. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Nasdaq Tries to Resume Its Uptrend(?)

Published October 2, 2020

This week, our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) appeared to resume the uptrend that was halted through much of September. Let’s examine the chart below to see how this market correction played out. The square around the price bars, and also around the volume bars, show the market selloff (declining prices in heavy volume). The -14% price decline from the selloff basically negated the sharp August runup, a runup which had most market watchers concerned about the “froth” in market valuation. (more…)

Weekly Update

New Hurdles Emerge for Stocks

Published September 25, 2020

After a summer spent surging higher on economy re-openings and optimism for growth, stocks have entered a typical September slump. While we could just chalk it up to typical pre-election caution, there are fundamental factors that have emerged to challenge the market perhaps more seriously than usual. (more…)

Weekly Update

Will Zero Interest Rates Lose Their Impact?

Published September 18, 2020




A couple of notes from widely read investment blogger Josh Brown provide reason to be a little less than thrilled with the Fed’s current language, while also reminding investors that the sharp rally in our favored Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has some strong fundamental support, something lacking in prior QQQ rallies. (more…)