Published March 31, 2017
DecisionPoint has long been a large influence on our work here at Fraser Partners (developer and publisher of TimingCube, FPResearch, TradeGuru, and ETFTide). The chart and technical analysis purveyor has a disciplined, consistent approach as we do. We are kindred spirits. Below is a long-term chart (Chart 1) showing over 20 years of stock market history. (more…)
Published March 24, 2017
The post-election rally has been built on President Trump’s ability to implement his tax reform and infrastructure building agenda, with heavy emphasis on the tax reform. Recent events have caused the market to get nervous about the ability of the Trump agenda to be carried out. First, tax reform was not pursued as the primary objective with Congress. Instead, healthcare reform, specifically reforming the Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare, became the first order of business. This put the success of passing the healthcare reform as a first test of Trump’s ability to get his agenda through Congress. (more…)
Published March 17, 2017
Like most investors, we focus mainly on our local market. We are highly attuned to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, the Dow Industrial and Russell 2000. This stock market rally kick-started in November is very much a global phenomenon with recent participation abroad adding more and more fuel. Chart 1 below, of the global stock market index shows the rally bursting forth (out of a cup-with-handle chart formation and/or an inverse head and shoulders as you like). (more…)
Published March 10, 2017
In 2015, after more than quadrupling in price in a massive bullish run, biotech stocks hit a wall. Presumably undone by some comments from then-Senator Hillary Clinton that drug prices were too high and needed to be addressed, biotech stocks began wilting. Mrs. Clinton’s comments aside, the stocks had run to a point where they were just way overvalued and due for a rest. (more…)
Published March 3, 2017
Over the 15+ years we have been publishing our investment models much has changed. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were in their infancy when we started back in 2001 with only a handful of major choices, all focused on major indexes like the S&P 500. The notion of shorting markets had been around a long time. But primarily among professionals and avid traders. Ever-rising computation power and internet speeds made crunching data quicker, easier, and cheaper putting into every hobbyist traders hands the power to build investment models. (more…)
Published February 24, 2017
Gold, silver, and commodities generally have been trending higher for the past three months. Rather than ponder the reasons why, we are going to focus on whether buying gold is a good choice right now from a technical perspective. We will look at the gold trade from a couple of different time frame perspectives. (more…)
Published February 17, 2017
After two months spent churning around while the Nasdaq index caught up, stocks have powered upward so far this month. With this second leg of the post-election rally kicked off, investors have a substantial fear of missing out (FOMO as the social media set would call it). This self-reinforcing ebullience has pushed volatility to extremely low levels. As Chart 1 below from Charlie Bilello shows, the S&P 500 has set a record for the number of days without even a +/-1% move, a record that now stands at some 44 days, a full 10 days or almost 30% longer than the prior record. (more…)
Published February 10, 2017
Throughout the 2000s the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China – were stock market leaders riding a boom in commodities driven by China’s expansion. Since that boom peaked in 2008, the group has been out of favor – flat at best, sliding in the case of Russia and Brazil, the two most sensitive to commodity prices. Recently, the BRIC looks like it just might be back as commodity prices get a lift. Most commodities are half or less their peak prices.
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Published February 3, 2017
During the financial crisis the stock market fell by over -50%. By February 1, 2011, the stock market had recovered about +80% from the market lows. Yet, investors still had not recovered from the losses. In fact, they were still down by more than -15%! Many investors might have wondered: why am I still “underwater”? How can an 80% gain be less than a 50% loss? Chart 1 below sets out the math of this situation.
Published January 27, 2017
A stock market rally is rarely about any single thing. While one event, news item, or good market day can certainly change the tone of the market, it takes a full menu of inputs turning positive to sustain and build a lasting rally. Such as been the case over the past three months. This overview of the past three months provides a good general display of how a stock market rally gets going and stays going. Whether this rally marks more time and higher prices for beyond three months is anybody’s guess. (more…)
