Published December 24, 2021
Despite the broad market S&P 500 hitting new highs, this year has been one of frustration for much of the stock market. The roughly 2000 stocks that make up the small cap index have gone nowhere since February. A breakout in November offered hope that small cap stocks would join the large-cap brethren in charting new high ground. But that effort was quickly turned away. (more…)
Published December 17, 2021
This week we offer another outlook for 2022; this time from Delta. Reading various outlooks from different groups can, taken together, provide a view of what the ‘market’ expects. Note that our models rely on actual price data and do not include any forecasted information such as these outlooks. (more…)
Published December 10, 2021
Continuing from last week’s outlook for 2022, we provide the second part below, this part focused on the economy and stock valuations. (more…)
Published December 3, 2021
Stock markets have come under pressure lately as the Fed begins withdrawing stimulus and a new Covid-19 variant hits investor confidence in the economic recovery. Over the remainder of the year, we will pass along Schwab’s 2022 outlook, breaking it into a few parts covering the economy and markets. Schwab, having acquired TD Ameritrade, is the biggest retail stock broker in the country. As such, their analysis and insights can have a substantial audience and potential impact on investors. (more…)
Published November 26, 2021
In the end it is investor sentiment that drives stock prices. Optimism and enthusiasm pushes money into the market and prices higher. Pessimism and downbeat attitudes send money under the mattress and safety. Liz Ann Sonders evaluates investor sentiment in the article below. As always, it’s a mixed bag, especially given that we are in the middle of what is typically the most seasonally strong time of year. (more…)
Published November 19, 2021
Here at TimingCube we are focused on the Nasdaq 100 index, trading with the symbol QQQ. This index typically contains the most innovative and “high tech” companies in the stock market with a strong bent toward technology and consumer services. Schwab recently posted an article outlining the pros and cons of the broad tech sector, which has a very high correlation to the QQQ. We thought you might find it interesting. (more…)
Published November 12, 2021
This week’s inflation numbers put a little (temporary?) scare in the markets. But the one-day jump in interest rates did not even offset the past two weeks’ worth of yield declines. (more…)
Published November 5, 2021
A pivotal week for stocks in the near-term as the Federal Reserve (finally!) confirms its plan to begin reducing (aka “tapering”) its portfolio of bonds. This gradual stepping back from active participation in the bond markets is viewed as a first step in the central bank’s path to raising interest rates. (more…)
Published October 29, 2021
There were some unusual moves in the markets this week. Some of those movements are attributed to the taxable year-end for mutual funds, which occurs at the end of October. That year-end leads to selling of some positions to capture gains and losses for the tax year. As a result, it is possibly too early to draw any firm conclusions from these moves. (more…)
Published October 22, 2021
The stock market is driven by earnings + liquidity + sentiment. With the Federal Reserve providing money at near-zero interest rates, the liquidity piece of the formula has been overflowing. Sentiment, or how optimistic/pessimistic investors are regarding the economy and markets, has generally been favorable. Corporate earnings have been stellar, rebounding strongly from the Covid-induced weakness. (more…)