Weekly Update

Not a “Real” Recession


Published July 8, 2022

At some point, all the bad news gets priced into stocks. We will see if that has happened in the coming weeks when companies report their quarterly earnings. The bearish market case says that falling corporate earnings are the next shoe to drop. The bullish case points to a myriad of seasonal factors, such as mid-term election market history, to suggest that the worst is behind us in stocks. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Drivers of Shelter Inflation


Published July 1, 2022

Housing is a critical piece of the economy. Not only is a home the single largest investment most people make, but the industry built around housing – furniture, repair, mortgage finance, et al. – represents a major component of consumer spending. Many homeowners over the past year or two have seen the value of their house soar. That spike in prices has rippled through to higher rents, which is a significant component of reported inflation. Thus, the financials of the housing industry are very important. (more…)

Weekly Update

Consumer Sentiment Reaches Extreme Levels


Published June 24, 2022

 

While no one has any clue which way the stock market goes from here, what we do know is that the magnitude of negative sentiment is extreme. The last time we saw consumer sentiment at these levels was in 1980, a dismal period for the economy. The current sentiment reading seems very much at odds with what’s really going on in the economy. (more…)

Uncategorized

Doom and Gloom


Published June 17, 2022

 

Investors got what they thought they wanted this week when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by a full 0.75% and talked even tougher about fighting inflation. But a little post-rate hike relief rally gave way to yet another selloff the following day.

Investors have quickly shifted from worrying about inflation to fully embracing talk of a recession and downward revisions in corporate earnings. By many accounts, the recession is already here. It certainly felt gloomy and heavy in markets this week. (more…)

Weekly Update

Still Stormy Out There


Published June 10, 2022

Investors are facing a tremendous amount of uncertainty these days as inflation continues to push out the timeline for when the Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hikes. Friday’s “hot” inflation data offered the Fed no new cover for backing off their inflation-fighting posture. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market and Economic Outlook


Published June 3, 2022

 

This week, we check in with the folks at Schwab who just published their mid-year outlook. It’s a longer piece than we usually offer in our weekly, but chock full of data and insights from one of the largest retail brokers. We hope you find it informative. (more…)

Weekly Update

Is the Market Selloff Overdone?


Published May 27, 2022

After seven weeks of declines, the stock market finally found some buyers this week. Still, the trend remains down. The comments below from Delta Research provide a couple of charts to frame the recent declines and what might lie ahead for the stock market in the coming months. (more…)

Weekly Update

Will Commodities Continue Leading the Market?


Published May 20, 2022

 

Do you remember a couple of years ago in the height of Covid fear when the price of oil went negative?  The global economy shut down. The world was suddenly awash in oil. And there was no place to store it. Nobody wanted the excess oil barrels. Holders of oil had to pay someone to take the excess off their hands – a negative oil price. Things have dramatically changed since then as the price of oil has skyrocketed to as high as $130 per barrel. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Argument for a Recession


Published May 13, 2022

 

The commentary below comes from Josh Brown, where he argues that we should be rooting for a recession so we can go ahead and get it behind us, cleanse the palette, and begin a new cycle. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market Offering Almost Nowhere to Hide


Published May 6, 2022

 

This week the Fed made the first of their larger interest rate hikes with a 0.5% move (50 bps in bond market parlance). Here’s the path of Fed interest rates that the market foresees – straight up from now through March 2023. (more…)