Published October 24, 2025
The article from Delta Research below discusses the odd intersection between consumer sentiment, labor markets, and stock prices. What is good for Wall Street right now might not be good for Main Street. (more…)
Bubbles Don’t Just Pop All at Once
Published October 10, 2025
Talk of bubbles is fairly rampant these days with parabolic rises in silver and other metals joining huge jumps in prices of anything AI-related (the circular AI bubble being its own bubblicious beast). The MarketWatch article below reminds us that the popping of the late-90s “dot com” bubble was not a straightforward affair, but rather a process. It is that process of unwinding that leads to the very helpful and wealth-protecting SELL signals our models generate (as we did then and again in 2007-2008). (more…)
AI Bubble Talk Ramps Up
Published October 3, 2025
With the stock market having come through the infamous month of September in fine fashion, investment analyst talk of a bubble in stocks, and in AI-related companies, has returned full force. Delta Research outlines below the supporting structures for higher stock prices. Afterward, we link to an article on the AI bubble thesis. As Trend-Followers, we follow the market’s price moves, up or down. Regardless of AI bubble fears, price continues to move up. (more…)
The Wealth Effect
Published September 26, 2025
So far at least, the presumed negative impacts of the Trump Administration’s tariff policies have not materialized. GDP for the third quarter is projected to be above +3%, a healthy economic growth level. While inflation remains higher than hoped for, it has not accelerated to the upside as some predicted. The doom and gloom purveyors keep having to push out their negatives into some future time.
Why is this the case? How can so many market and economic analysts get it wrong? We think the stock market has been a big part of the answer.
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On Interest Rate Cuts and Market Expectations
Published September 19, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s long-awaited interest rate cut happened this week. Below, we provide thoughts from Delta Research on the rationale behind the rate cut and prospects for markets now that it has occurred. (more…)
The Deficit – Interest Rate Relationship
Published September 12, 2025
We know that many investors worry about deficits and the potential impact on interest rates. There was a bit of upheaval in non-U.S. credit markets recently. (more…)
Rising Earnings Lift Growth Stocks … Further
Published September 5, 2025
Not a day goes by that we don’t read some market observer commenting about how expensive the stock market is. Yet stocks have kept pushing higher. Why? The note below from Blackrock shows that the rise in U.S. growth stocks this year has been substantially the result of rising earnings. The increase in valuation (e.g. making stocks more expensive relative to their earnings) has been modest. Also of note, small cap stock valuations have not increased at all. (more…)
A Case for Not Lowering Interest Rates
Published August 29, 2025
In a recent article, long-time market analyst Ed Yardeni shares a list of reasons why the Federal Reserve should go slow in lowering interest rates: (more…)
The Fed’s Dilemma
Published August 22, 2025
To listen to the market media you would think the weight of the world hangs in the balance every time the Federal Reserve meets. Today’s speech at the annual Fed meeting in Wyoming is presumed to give investors a peak into whether the Central Bank will cut interest rates in September as well as their outlook for cuts through year-end. (more…)