Published September 14, 2018
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal talks about how the financial crisis bred fear. That fear has kept the economic recovery at a slow burn rate while risk-taking has largely been held in check. (more…)
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A Smattering of Concerning Charts
Published September 7, 2018
It is said that stock markets climb a wall of worry. As concerns dissipate, investors feel more free to take risk and buy stocks. A sustainable market rally takes hold when the worries are replaced by a “Goldilocks” scenario where market participants view the near-term future as favorable for stock investing. They buy shares with little concern. The lack of concern reaches a point of complacency where investors are undervaluing potential risks. (more…)
Where the Next Market Crisis Might Come From
Published August 31,2018
With the 10-year anniversary of the onset of the global financial crisis just weeks away, now is a good time to ask where the next global economic crisis might come from. To be clear: We’re not sounding any alarms here. We don’t think a crisis is imminent. But we do like to keep our eyes on the horizon.
Reforms to the global financial system in the wake of the 2008–2009 crisis mean the next crisis probably won’t look like the last one. So what will it look like? (more…)
Some Say Market Risks Are Rising
Published August 24, 2018
In this week where the S&P 500 touched a new high, we thought it would be interesting to hear a more cautionary view. Below we reprint an excellent overview of the recent issues in Turkey (along with comments on the general economy and market) from the folks at Charles Schwab. (more…)
Investment Models + ETFs – Timingcube Was There When It All Began
Published August 17, 2018
TimingCube’s timing was very fortunate. We started publishing our market-beating signals in the summer of 2001, a year or so after the bloom had been ripped off the rose of the dot.com market boom. Investors had enjoyed a nearly non-stop romp through the latter half of the 1990s, with the stock market more than doubling over a 5-year period. (more…)
Worry Warts A-Building
Published August 10, 2018
While the overall picture for stocks remains decidedly positive, we were struck by a building wall of worry in the two article reprints below this week (both from reporters at Marketwatch.com). Of course, the wall of worry provides fuel for further stock price increases as the skeptics give in to the bulls. (more…)
Wage Growth Will Push Interest Rates Higher
Published August 3, 2018
Much is discussed about the potential for an inverted yield curve, a situation where short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term rates. The inverted yield curve has a good recent track record for predicting recessions as Chart 1 below shows. (more…)
Timing Matters so Very Much
Published July 27, 2018
Below is an interesting article by Nick Maggiulli pointing out that time, YOUR personal time – as in when you are alive, matters very much as to your life (and investing) experience. Imagine the difference between having your primary investing years occurring during the go-go days of the 1990s, retiring in 1999, turning over your hefty equity gains from the 1980s and 1990s into a heavily bond/income portfolio. The 600%+ return of the stock market from 1984-1999 would have delivered a nice retirement package. If you were only five years younger, however, your retirement package would be fully HALF of the prior example as your primary investing years would have spanned the dot-com market crash. (more…)
First Half 2018 Dominated by Tech
Published July 20, 2018
Through the first half of the year, only three sectors outperformed the broad market – technology, consumer, and energy. (more…)
Mid-Term Elections and the Stock Market
Published July 13, 2018
While we investors all know that past performance is no guarantee of future results, when an investment approach has worked 100% of the time, over a period of over 70 years and across almost 20 cyclicals of data, we take notice. A slide in this week’s presentation by CFRA offered just such a strong possibility of near-certainty. (more…)