Published August 19, 2022
It has been quite a long time since we have seen such disparity in the narratives flowing down Wall Street. How long and hard the Fed will tighten rates is one source of contention. But it’s not the biggest. That would belong to where corporate earnings are headed, which is sort of a Street barometer for whether or not the economy falls into a recession (how deep that recession is a third dimension discussion floating around also). (more…)
Published April 16, 2021
A couple of investment stories have piqued our interest recently. We wanted to comment on them to perhaps provide some perspective on these events.
We know that cheap money, while generally good for jumpstarting the economy, eventually breeds all kinds of excesses. Often those excesses show up as one-off, seemingly random events which, when taken together, form a picture of a more serious issue. Such was the case in the summer of 2007 as two hedge funds at investment bank Bear Stearns were suddenly shut down. (more…)
Published January 1, 2021
Below is a good recap of the year in investing excerpted from the Wall Street Journal. Our model-driven, long-short approach to investing responded well, protecting us from the worst of the market selloff while participating well in the rebound. We appreciate you, our family of subscribers, and wish you a healthy and prosperous 2021! (more…)
Published April 20, 2020
Today’s front page of the Wall Street Journal carries the following stories: Jobless claims top an “unprecedented” 17 million, Fed unleashes its broadest ever array of programs, Coronavirus creates a “mountain of debt”, Saudis and Russia agree to oil production cut. Those four topics encapsulate what markets have been wrestling with over the past month, and going forward. We will undoubtedly spend more time in coming weeks on most of those. This week, we are focused on the dramatically expanded role of the Federal Reserve.
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Published April 12, 2019
Below is a recent market and economic commentary from the folks at Schwab. As with many of their comments this year, they remain quite cautious on the stock market despite its run higher. Here, they explain what they see that causes them some pause: (more…)
Published January 5, 2018
Over the past year, there have been numerous articles telling us that the U.S. economy is entering the “late-cycle” phase, a period of about 18 months characterized by rising inflation (and therefore rising interest rates), higher commodity prices, and positive though waning economic growth. (more…)
Published November 24, 2017
Our focus index the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been on fire this year! The article below from the Wall Street Journal notes that unlike the 2000 dot com boom, this tech-fueled rally is built on solid earnings growth. We also note that this year is the first time tech has led the market since the brief post-crash 2003 recovery rally. Here is Riva Gold’s article from this week’s WSJ: (more…)