Published April 21, 2023
Fidelity provided an update on where they see global economics this week. The nation’s largest administrator of 401k plans finds much of the world in late-cycle growth mode where credit gets tighter, earnings struggle, and economic growth slows. The next step is recession, which is what the vast majority of the economic watchers have been projecting for some time now. (more…)
Published April 9, 2021
The past few days have marked an important milestone in the market’s recovery. The volatility index (VIX) measuring the relative “fear” of investors has dropped below its key reference line as the chart below shows. Fear has subsided and the market has returned to normal levels. (more…)
Published March 26, 2021
Market corrections are typically defined as a decline of at least -10%. But they can also be corrections “through time”. A case in point is the chart of Amazon below. After leading the way higher for stocks from the initial Covid-19 plunge, Amazon has traded sideways for the past nine months, correcting in time. (more…)
Published February 8, 2019
Our FPResearch website publishes a couple of composite Broad Market Indicators. These composites include some 20 component indicators to provide a pictorial view of market health. While the short to intermediate term indicators have recovered and look strong, the substantial damage caused to the market in the October-December selloff is reflected in the more cautious long-term reading. (more…)
Published December 22, 2017
2017 feels like an extraordinarily good year for the stock market. While it is above average, the market had a substantially better year only four years ago, and another 20%+ gain four years prior to that. What differentiates this year is the extreme calm that investors felt all year long. For only the second time in the past 35+ years, the WORST decline the stock market encountered was a measly -3%. Many stocks move that much in a day. (more…)
Published April 14,2017
This week brought the return of geopolitical concerns to the stock market. The volatility “fear” index spiked in the wake of the U.S. bombing of Syria, deployment of a U.S. warship to the waters off North Korea, and tougher talk from the Trump Administration toward Russia. It’s been a good six months since the stock market has found anything to worry about. (more…)