VIX

Weekly Update

Are All Systems Now “Go!”?

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Published June 27,2025

 

The stock market approached new highs this week. Where have all the bears gone? Delta Research offers the crosscurrents below that continue to generate the Wall of Worry that stocks are climbing.

“The stock market surged this week despite U.S.-Iran military tensions. It rallied when bombings began, climbed further on ceasefire news, and even gained after reports suggested limited damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The S&P 500 rose over 2%, now within 1% of its all-time high. If you predicted this response, you’re operating at an elite level. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Upshot of Volatility Spikes

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Published April 18, 2025

Below, we provide an excerpt of Blake Millard’s work discussing the impact of spikes in volatility. The market recently had a major spike with volatility remaining very elevated. What happens next historically? (more…)

Weekly Update

Resilient Market

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Published August 16, 2024

 

It was only one week ago that markets came unglued as fears of a “hard landing” coupled with a Japanese Yen market shocker to unnerve investors. But that was last week. Here is Delta Research’s take on the recent market and economic action:

“The market is resilient. (more…)

Weekly Update

A wild week for markets

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Published August 9, 2024

 

It’s been quite a week for markets. Addressing various topics around the market stress, we offer thoughts from Blake Millard. Here’s Blake commenting on Monday’s market selloff where futures were down as much as -5% before cutting that loss by day’s end. (more…)

Weekly Update

Measures of Investor Risk

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Published May 24, 2024

 

One of Wall Street’s last remaining bears threw in the towel this week when Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson raised his outlook for the stock market. This came after Mr. Wilson warned for over a year that the market was vulnerable and the economy shaky. The data has been anything but concerning so far in 2024 with consumer spending remaining strong and investors ever-more confident. Stocks have delivered an average year’s worth of gains in less than six months. (more…)

Weekly Update

September Delivers, so Far

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Published September 22, 2023

 

Below we present an article from the Wall Street Journal talking about the September Effect in stock prices. With the month of September now ¾ of the way done, we find that stocks have lived up to their sour September reputation, so far falling anywhere from 3-6%. (more…)

Weekly Update

Late Cycle Economics and a Stagnant Market

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Published April 21, 2023

 

Fidelity provided an update on where they see global economics this week. The nation’s largest administrator of 401k plans finds much of the world in late-cycle growth mode where credit gets tighter, earnings struggle, and economic growth slows. The next step is recession, which is what the vast majority of the economic watchers have been projecting for some time now. (more…)

Weekly Update

Volatility Drop Usually a Positive Signal

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Published April 9, 2021

The past few days have marked an important milestone in the market’s recovery. The volatility index (VIX) measuring the relative “fear” of investors has dropped below its key reference line as the chart below shows. Fear has subsided and the market has returned to normal levels. (more…)

Weekly Update

Correcting Through Time

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Published March 26, 2021

 

Market corrections are typically defined as a decline of at least -10%. But they can also be corrections “through time”. A case in point is the chart of Amazon below. After leading the way higher for stocks from the initial Covid-19 plunge, Amazon has traded sideways for the past nine months, correcting in time. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Where the Market Stands Now

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Published February 8, 2019

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Our FPResearch website publishes a couple of composite Broad Market Indicators. These composites include some 20 component indicators to provide a pictorial view of market health. While the short to intermediate term indicators have recovered and look strong, the substantial damage caused to the market in the October-December selloff is reflected in the more cautious long-term reading. (more…)