Published July 2, 2021
Last week we brought you a global outlook from Schwab. This week, we bring a mid-year outlook published by Invesco, the company responsible for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (symbol: QQQ) that our models focus on. Needless to say, Invesco is very positive on the outlook. (more…)
Published June 18, 2021
This year’s stock market has been all about rotation with money moving into value stocks and out of growth stocks. The narrative has been that rising inflation would push up interest rates. The hike in rates in turn raises the denominator of the classic stock price valuation (e.g. earnings/interest rates) which devalues high-flying growth stocks. The beneficiaries of this narrative have been cyclical sectors like materials, industrials, and energy. This week that narrative took a beating. (more…)
Published December 18, 2020
We recently noted the strength of non-U.S. stock markets. One of the primary reasons for that strength has been currency-related. The U.S. dollar, often a safe haven in times of stress, has been declining as investors focus on a recovery in global economies in 2021. (more…)
Published September 25, 2020
After a summer spent surging higher on economy re-openings and optimism for growth, stocks have entered a typical September slump. While we could just chalk it up to typical pre-election caution, there are fundamental factors that have emerged to challenge the market perhaps more seriously than usual. (more…)
Published July 31, 2020
There has been a lot of attention recently about the sharp drop in the price of the U.S. dollar. This decline has sent gold and other commodity prices soaring. Driving this decline in the dollar is a quicker recovery in economies outside the U.S., last week’s coordinated stimulus action by the European Union (which bolsters the Euro), and the zero interest rate policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve for as long as the eye can see. To put this in context, until recently, the dollar enjoyed a very long run of strength as Europe and Japan struggled. (more…)
Published June 21, 2019
This week, we offer not a single particular point, but instead a couple of market observations. (more…)