Published August 22, 2025
To listen to the market media you would think the weight of the world hangs in the balance every time the Federal Reserve meets. Today’s speech at the annual Fed meeting in Wyoming is presumed to give investors a peak into whether the Central Bank will cut interest rates in September as well as their outlook for cuts through year-end. (more…)
Published May 26, 2023
Below are excerpts from Blaine Rollins’ latest collection of market and economic observations and data. There continues to be an extraordinary lack of consensus around any market narrative. Thus, we keep chopping around mostly sideways in the broad market while the heavy-hitters of the market are perceived as the safest bet to make in the stock market. Stocks have strong competition also as short-term debt instruments offer 5%+ returns for little to no risk. At some point, this all breaks down. But that breakdown could well be a surge of money into the rest of the stock market which one of Blaine’s sources below shows is rather cheap these days. Given that such an outcome is talked about relatively little, perhaps it’s the most likely destination for stocks? (more…)
Published June 10, 2022
Investors are facing a tremendous amount of uncertainty these days as inflation continues to push out the timeline for when the Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hikes. Friday’s “hot” inflation data offered the Fed no new cover for backing off their inflation-fighting posture. (more…)
Published May 1, 2020
If I had told you 12 months ago that:
Would you have believed me? (more…)
Published March 27, 2020
This week, as we hunker down and ‘shelter-in-place’, we offer an assortment of bear market observations. First, we will start with noted market observer Josh Brown’s views on whether the stock market has seen its worst days yet. That is followed by Dan Sullivan’s more historical view on bear markets. We remind readers that Wall Street is in New York City, which has been on the front lines of the virus in the USA over the past few days and weeks. It’s no surprise, then, that the investment community in NYC will feel more besieged by the virus news than some other parts of the country. Keep that context in mind as you read. (more…)
Published January 18, 2019
We find the folks at Schwab, led by Liz Ann Sonders, to provide a good overview of the intersection of markets and the economy. Below is their most recent analysis – a bit lengthy. But we think it’s worthwhile. Enjoy! (more…)
Published August 3, 2018
Much is discussed about the potential for an inverted yield curve, a situation where short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term rates. The inverted yield curve has a good recent track record for predicting recessions as Chart 1 below shows. (more…)