Treasury Yields

Weekly Update

What’s Going On With Interest Rates?

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Published March 7, 2025

For much of the past four years investors have focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fight against it. While the Fed only controls the very short-term interest rate, their words about potential future Fed moves affect interest rates much further out in time.

In December, the Fed surprised investors by pulling back on expectations for coming interest rate cuts. Inflation has stabilized albeit at levels that might be higher than the Fed would like. But over the past two weeks, interest rates have suddenly fallen sharply, appearing to diverge from the Fed-driven path. (more…)

Weekly Update

Investors Bet on Pro-growth Policies

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Published January 24, 2025

 

Whereas December showed investors becoming fearful of a sharp rise in interest rates, January seems to be bringing a more optimistic read on those rising rates, namely that economic growth will re-accelerate. When Trump’s first day in office did not bring substantial across the board tariffs, stock investors took it to mean that the bulls could run. Earnings have come in very good so far further emboldening the bulls. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Nasdaq Rally “Whale”

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Published September 11, 2020

The recent stock market pullback has thus far basically reversed the August surge. Our focused Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped to its 50-day moving average for the first time since the rally began in April. The rally in August (blue arrow below) has been, in part, attributed to a multi-billion $ options bet made by tech investor Softbank. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Fed gets bigger

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Published April 20, 2020

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Today’s front page of the Wall Street Journal carries the following stories: Jobless claims top an “unprecedented” 17 million, Fed unleashes its broadest ever array of programs, Coronavirus creates a “mountain of debt”, Saudis and Russia agree to oil production cut.  Those four topics encapsulate what markets have been wrestling with over the past month, and going forward.  We will undoubtedly spend more time in coming weeks on most of those.  This week, we are focused on the dramatically expanded role of the Federal Reserve.
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Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Business Cycle/Sector Investing Takes a Curve Ball This Cycle

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Published August 23, 2019

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Business cycle/sector investing is a seemingly easy way to apply a layer of insight to traditional buy-and-hold investing. By focusing our investment funds on sectors that typically show improved performance during certain phases of the business cycle, a sector investor can presume to outperform the broad market. However, it is never quite that easy. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Currencies in focus

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Published August 9, 2019

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This week’s shocking currency move by China brought currencies and their management into the spotlight. The Chinese lowered their currency “peg” to a surprisingly low number as a retaliatory move in the trade skirmish with the Trump Administration.

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