Published December 12, 2025
Over the coming three weeks we will offer Schwab’s outlook for the coming year. It’s a full document. So, we think cutting into more bite-sized pieces makes sense. Here’s the first section on the economy:
“This unique economic and market cycle is best defined using a couple of key letters: U and K. (more…)
Published July 4, 2025
After a tumultuous but ultimately rewarding first half of 2025, we look ahead to the second half of the year to see what might unfold. (more…)
Published June 20, 2025
This week we offer a summary of recent market and economic activities from Blaine Rollins and Hamilton Lane:
“The bounce in US equities and high yield credit spreads is a sign that the big White House tariff rates will not hold through year end. Stock and corporate bond investors are betting that margins will be safe, and that earnings will not be damaged. The government might bark about tariffs, but they will not bite because Americans want their goods available and affordable, and no one wants to see US multinational operations shift their exported sales manufacturing overseas. The weak Treasury bond market tells us that higher inflation will stick around as some tariffs remain in place. And the US dollar weakness suggests that owners of businesses and investors are now more concerned about deploying capital into US capex and investment assets. (more…)
Published April 25, 2025
Stocks are looking to bounce back from a horrid beginning of April. The S&P 500 has rallied back to the “scene of the crime” where it broke down decisively at 550-560. Is there enough momentum to push through the resistance AND above the 200-day (40-week) moving average at 570? That’s what technical market analysts are looking for. (more…)
Published February 7, 2025
Below are some comments from Delta Research on the dynamics behind market moves. As the stock market churns, it’s interesting to read what goes on under the surface of the index headlines.
“On Monday January 27, Nvidia depreciated -17% ($589 billion) in response to the announcement from China regarding the price/performance characteristics of their DeepSeek R1 AI engine. (more…)
Published January 10, 2025
Happy New Year! Markets have begun the year where they exited 2024, with quite a bit of uncertainty. Blake Millard does a good job laying out the sources of that uncertainty in his comments shown below:
“Policy uncertainty should lead to higher volatility
The U.S. economy remains on solid footing as we head into 2025, supported by a steady consumer, easing inflation, relief from higher/restrictive interest rates, and a pickup in the corporate earnings cycle.
With trend GDP growth expected, the fundamental underpinnings that support economic expansion are robust and well known. However, a number of wild cards patiently await in the shadows that could determine the trajectory of the economy and financial markets over the next year. (more…)
Published November 29, 2024
Below, we offer Schwab’s recap of the post-election moves in the stock market. We hope you are enjoying a happy and healthy Thanksgiving. (more…)
Published March 9, 2018
While the stock market broadly continues to digest the solid gains of 2017 and investors ponder whether to add to those gains in 2018, we present some areas of the market where strength is being seen. (more…)