stock market

Weekly Update

A Strong Year for the Broad Market Masks Plenty of Weakness


Published December 24, 2021

Despite the broad market S&P 500 hitting new highs, this year has been one of frustration for much of the stock market. The roughly 2000 stocks that make up the small cap index have gone nowhere since February. A breakout in November offered hope that small cap stocks would join the large-cap brethren in charting new high ground. But that effort was quickly turned away. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Fuel for Stocks


Published October 22, 2021

The stock market is driven by earnings + liquidity + sentiment. With the Federal Reserve providing money at near-zero interest rates, the liquidity piece of the formula has been overflowing. Sentiment, or how optimistic/pessimistic investors are regarding the economy and markets, has generally been favorable. Corporate earnings have been stellar, rebounding strongly from the Covid-induced weakness. (more…)

Uncategorized

Has Peak Earnings Growth Meant Peak Stock Market?


Published August 6, 2021

Below is an article from Schwab on the connection between earnings and the stock market.

“In what shaped up to be a very impressive first half of the year for both the economy and stock market, stellar earnings growth has been a key ingredient. Coming off stronger-than-expected S&P 500 earnings growth of 53% (year over year) in the first quarter, second-quarter earnings are currently anticipated to grow by 78%, the highest since 2009. That is well higher than the initial consensus estimate of 65%. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Surge in Companies Going Public Reverses Years of Decline


Published July 30, 2021

 

One of the interesting features of the stock market over the past year has been the tremendous rise in companies going public. This is coming after a long period where companies seemed very much to prefer staying in private hands. That sentiment has changed dramatically and pretty quickly, giving investors a plethora of new companies to consider. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Time for Caution?


Published April 12, 2019

timingcube_cartoon041219

Below is a recent market and economic commentary from the folks at Schwab. As with many of their comments this year, they remain quite cautious on the stock market despite its run higher. Here, they explain what they see that causes them some pause: (more…)

Weekly Update

Why worry?


Published February 17, 2017

timingcube_cartoon021717

After two months spent churning around while the Nasdaq index caught up, stocks have powered upward so far this month. With this second leg of the post-election rally kicked off, investors have a substantial fear of missing out (FOMO as the social media set would call it). This self-reinforcing ebullience has pushed volatility to extremely low levels. As Chart 1 below from Charlie Bilello shows, the S&P 500 has set a record for the number of days without even a +/-1% move, a record that now stands at some 44 days, a full 10 days or almost 30% longer than the prior record. (more…)