stock market

Weekly Update

Key Economic Indicators to Watch

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Published August 12, 2022

 

The article below from Zacks provides a good overview of the key economic indicators to look for as we move into the second half of the year.

“The Federal Reserve is actively trying to curb demand in the economy by raising rates, and all the talk is about whether they can usher a ‘soft-landing’ without triggering a deep recession. So, the Fed will be a key factor to watch in the second half of the year. But I also have three other economic fundamentals investors should put on their watchlists, as they could be key in determining the path of the economy and markets over the next year. (more…)

Weekly Update

Still Stormy Out There

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Published June 10, 2022

Investors are facing a tremendous amount of uncertainty these days as inflation continues to push out the timeline for when the Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hikes. Friday’s “hot” inflation data offered the Fed no new cover for backing off their inflation-fighting posture. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Bit of Calm Returns to Stocks

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Published March 25, 2022

 

The stock market has settled down quite a lot in recent days as this chart of the volatility index shows. When volatility jumped down over that blue trendline, and kept going down, it was a likely sign that stock investors could breathe a little easier. Nevertheless, we also note that volatility has been generally elevated since mid-November and has a ways to go before true calm returns to the market. (more…)

Weekly Update

Finding Fuel for a Future Rally

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Published February 11, 2022

 

In the face of a fair amount of gloom as the stock market continues struggling to find traction, we turn to a positive piece from our friends at DIM. They walk through some of the supports for the stock market that, over time, might provide some lift once interest rate outlooks settle down. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Strong Year for the Broad Market Masks Plenty of Weakness

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Published December 24, 2021

Despite the broad market S&P 500 hitting new highs, this year has been one of frustration for much of the stock market. The roughly 2000 stocks that make up the small cap index have gone nowhere since February. A breakout in November offered hope that small cap stocks would join the large-cap brethren in charting new high ground. But that effort was quickly turned away. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Fuel for Stocks

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Published October 22, 2021

The stock market is driven by earnings + liquidity + sentiment. With the Federal Reserve providing money at near-zero interest rates, the liquidity piece of the formula has been overflowing. Sentiment, or how optimistic/pessimistic investors are regarding the economy and markets, has generally been favorable. Corporate earnings have been stellar, rebounding strongly from the Covid-induced weakness. (more…)

Uncategorized

Has Peak Earnings Growth Meant Peak Stock Market?

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Published August 6, 2021

Below is an article from Schwab on the connection between earnings and the stock market.

“In what shaped up to be a very impressive first half of the year for both the economy and stock market, stellar earnings growth has been a key ingredient. Coming off stronger-than-expected S&P 500 earnings growth of 53% (year over year) in the first quarter, second-quarter earnings are currently anticipated to grow by 78%, the highest since 2009. That is well higher than the initial consensus estimate of 65%. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Surge in Companies Going Public Reverses Years of Decline

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Published July 30, 2021

 

One of the interesting features of the stock market over the past year has been the tremendous rise in companies going public. This is coming after a long period where companies seemed very much to prefer staying in private hands. That sentiment has changed dramatically and pretty quickly, giving investors a plethora of new companies to consider. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Time for Caution?

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Published April 12, 2019

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Below is a recent market and economic commentary from the folks at Schwab. As with many of their comments this year, they remain quite cautious on the stock market despite its run higher. Here, they explain what they see that causes them some pause: (more…)