Published March 14, 2025
This week marked a clear turning point for the stock market. (more…)
S&P 500
The Coming Change in Fed Policy
Published August 30, 2024
Lots of discussion lately about the impact of a change in Federal Reserve policy on stocks. While markets have unquestionably been enthused about the coming cuts in short-term interest rates, that expected action has presumably already been priced into the market. What happens once the cuts begin? Do stock markets “sell the news”?
A New Industrial Revolution?
Published March 15, 2024
Below we provide a recent report from Delta Research putting some of the current market events in a broader context. Enjoy!
“U.S. share of global equity value has risen to 50%. The U.S., with a population of about 332 million people, has created half of all equity wealth in a world of 7.9 billion people. If this does not indicate capitalism works better than socialism and communism, it is hard to image what would. (more…)
Bulls Keep On Running
Published March 8, 2024
Below we present an overview of the market from a sector perspective written by Delta Research followed by a few snippets from Blaine Rollins’ newsletter detailing where inflation remains sticky among a couple of positive signs for investors. Enjoy the ride while it lasts! (more…)
On Being Bearish When Stocks Are Winning
Published February 2, 2024
The stock market in recent years has been clearly driven by changes in interest rates. If you looked at nothing else but rates, you would have done a great job investing in stocks. Of course, the volatility of some moves along the way were heart-stopping, which is why we prefer having the help of our models. Outside of the pandemic, the economy has been on a nearly non-stop upward trajectory – far outperforming the economies of other countries around the globe. Yet the bears persist in their doom and gloom, finding some (typically well-worn) angle to throw darts at the health of the economy and markets. (more…)
Earnings Yield
Published November 3, 2023
Below is a brief discussion from Delta Research on the risk premium that stocks are currently offering. With U.S. Treasury bonds (aka the “no risk” asset) yielding 5%+, for the first time in years, bonds are a solid competitor to stocks.
Investors buy “risky” assets because they believe the excess return will be sufficiently attractive to make the risky asset a better-buy than the low/no-risk asset. All investing requires predictions about the future and as a result, an element of risk. To improve the likelihood of achieving attractive portfolio returns, we use probabilities and math to form calculated risk expectations about future returns. (more…)
Have Stocks and Bonds Become Cheap Yet?
Published October 6, 2023
This week we turn to Delta Research and their recent overview of the stock and bond markets after the sharp rise in interest rates and corresponding pullback in stocks. (more…)
September Delivers, so Far
Published September 22, 2023
Below we present an article from the Wall Street Journal talking about the September Effect in stock prices. With the month of September now ¾ of the way done, we find that stocks have lived up to their sour September reputation, so far falling anywhere from 3-6%. (more…)
A New Bull Market?
Published June 9, 2023
The S&P 500 entered a new “bull market” this week as the index has now risen more than 20% from its low point hit last fall. Our friends at Delta research outline below how market sentiment has changed:
“The market is shifting. Sentiment is turning bullish. On the prospects of better growth and lower recession risk, funds are flowing back into equities.
(more…)
Stronger Economic Growth – Good and Bad for Markets
Published February 17, 2023
Below, our friends from Delta offer a summary of recent data which shows the economy being stronger than many expected. But that strength is pushing interest rates upward in a renewed push. The upward thrust in rates could well undo the stock market rally so far in 2023. Broad market analysts remain very split over the outlook for the economy and markets. We think now is a particularly important time to have a tactical approach to investing, with the ability to quickly adjust to changing conditions. Our models offer just such an approach. (more…)