S&P 500

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Market Reaches Technical Inflection Point


Published May 22, 2020

timingcube_cartoon052220

The stock market has rallied hard off the March 23rd bottom, surprising almost everyone in the strength and lift of the move. This rally has brought the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) back to positive on the year, a stunning development given the dire economic situation. That positive year-to-date print for the Nasdaq reflects the seeming fact that Covid-19 has served to accelerate trends which benefit these top companies of the digital economy – e.g. Amazon, Facebook, Google. That the Russell 2000 small-cap index remains down almost -20% year-to-date, while the equally-weighted version of the S&P 500 is down -16%, is perhaps a better stock market gauge of the overall economy’s troubles. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Are Stocks Too Far Ahead of the Economy?


Published April 24, 2020

timingcube_cartoon042420

Below we find a good summary of the current market situation from Delta insights. They note that stocks are expensive relative to history, with earnings outlooks unusually foggy, and the market’s high concentration in only a very few companies further cause for concern. Here’s Delta’s summary with our notes at the end: (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Winding Road to a Strong Year


Published January 10, 2020

timingcube_cartoon011020

Rarely has a +30% gain felt so lackluster. The year of 2019 closed with that substantial gain, one that registers in the top tenth of all market years. Yet those of us who watch the markets day-in, day-out and seek to follow the market’s trend viewed it as a play in three distinct acts, with only the final four months of the year delivering any real upside. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Smallcap Stocks Fail to Find Buyers


Published May 31, 2019

timingcube_cartoon053119

At the beginning of this month of May we concluded our weekly blog with the following:

“Were smaller, riskier stocks to find strength, it would be a real boost to the market’s rally effort as there is clearly some “wall of worry” built into this market.”

By the end of the month, the market’s answer was clear: there would be no boost from small and midcap stocks. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A New Bull Market


Published September 22, 2017

timingcube_cartoon092217

While many in the industry speculate on the coming end to a years-long bull market, there are others who argue that the bull market has just begun. How does this disagreement come about? (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

No Record Highs Here


Published August 25, 2017

timingcube_cartoon082517

Below from Delta is a good overview of the gap between different stock indexes and how large that gap has been this year. In reading this remember that small-cap value stocks are the best performing group over the history of the stock market. That this group is so substantially under-performing might mean something. (more…)

Weekly Update

Long-term Models and Metrics Can Lead to Misreading the Market


Published August 4, 2017

timingcube_cartoon080417

There are a number of folks talking about how overvalued this stock market is. Many of them refer to the metrics, indicators, and models discussed below. Read through this analysis from Jill Mislinski and we will return for some perspective at the end.

“Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
• The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline

(more…)