S&P 500

Weekly Update

Selloff in Growth Stocks Expands to Broad Market


Published January 21, 2022

 

Markets have struggled mightily so far in 2022 as looming Fed policy changes merge with Omicron-fueled slowdowns and Russia-Ukraine tensions to put investors on edge. Growth stocks, presumably more sensitive to rising interest rates, have stumbled the most. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Fed Presses on the Brakes


Published January 7, 2022

 

Markets have kicked off 2022 with a bit of a bang. Interest rates have surged higher as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will act quickly to tamp down nascent inflation and return interest rates to their pre-pandemic levels. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Strong Year for the Broad Market Masks Plenty of Weakness


Published December 24, 2021

Despite the broad market S&P 500 hitting new highs, this year has been one of frustration for much of the stock market. The roughly 2000 stocks that make up the small cap index have gone nowhere since February. A breakout in November offered hope that small cap stocks would join the large-cap brethren in charting new high ground. But that effort was quickly turned away. (more…)

Weekly Update

Historical Returns Data Suggests More Gains in 2022


Published December 17, 2021

This week we offer another outlook for 2022; this time from Delta. Reading various outlooks from different groups can, taken together, provide a view of what the ‘market’ expects. Note that our models rely on actual price data and do not include any forecasted information such as these outlooks. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Fuel for Stocks


Published October 22, 2021

The stock market is driven by earnings + liquidity + sentiment. With the Federal Reserve providing money at near-zero interest rates, the liquidity piece of the formula has been overflowing. Sentiment, or how optimistic/pessimistic investors are regarding the economy and markets, has generally been favorable. Corporate earnings have been stellar, rebounding strongly from the Covid-induced weakness. (more…)

Weekly Update

How Do We Value the Stock Market?


Published October 15, 2021

There is always plenty of talk about whether the stock market is ‘fairly’ valued, expensive, or cheap. It is a question without an answer; there are only opinions. Because in the marketplace, the price is determined solely by what investors are willing to pay. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Storm Below the Market’s Surface


Published October 8, 2021

Markets have clearly been gripped by uncertainty over the past month as interest rates have risen while concerns about government funding and China have called into question the trajectory of the economic recovery. Below is a portion of an excellent overview from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders on the noisy information facing investors these days. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market Finally Pulls Back


Published October 1, 2021

For the first time in a year, the stock market delivered a negative monthly return. We have written about the negative seasonality of September, which has proved out once again. October can be a dicey month as well, with wide swings in performance. (more…)

Weekly Update

Seasonally Weak September Challenges the Bulls


Published September 24, 2021

 

Monday’s gap down to begin the week was notable for the current stock market rally. It was the first time in almost a year that the S&P 500 broke the intermediate term trendline (in blue on the chart below). It has been an exceptionally long period of calm. (more…)

Weekly Update

And Again … the Stock Market Finds Buyers


Published September 3, 2021

The S&P 500 has spent ten straight months above its 50-day moving average, one of history’s longest stretches of calm. Ultra-low interest rates from an extremely cautious and accommodative Federal Reserve have supported risk-taking investors by keeping the cost of money near zero. Very strong corporate earnings have rewarded investors by expanding the ‘E’ in the P/E ratio, justifying the market’s run upward. (more…)