Published April 29, 2022
We really enjoyed Ryan Detrick’s article on the typical stock market movements during midterm election years (aka the second year of a presidential cycle). We hope you will find it interesting. (more…)
selloff
Historical Data Suggests Further Volatility Ahead Before a Strong Recovery
Published January 28, 2022
This week we are reviewing some interesting data from a recent presentation made by CFRA. The three charts tell a possible story for how this year will play out. First, after a strong year in the market in 2021, we have seen stocks hit a wall, tumbling hard throughout January. This selloff following a strong period is common, at least in the short-term. (more…)
Was This Historic October Selloff the Beginning of a Bear Market?
Published November 2, 2018
October is one of the two best months of the year here in Austin, Texas (the other being April). “Best” being defined as a break from the sweltering heat that drags along from May through September. In April and October, skies are sunny, temperatures are moderate, and our city is a joy. However, this year, we have experienced unprecedented rainfall that has washed away much of our prized October. The result of all the rain has been a swollen, mud-filled river through our city that has overwhelmed our water treatment facilities causing us to spend a week boiling water if we wanted to use it. It’s been a dramatic unraveling of our normally blissful month.
The stock market has experienced its own October unraveling. After a period of immense calm, stock investors have been rocked by a crushing series of volatile trading days, most often leaving market indexes heavily in the red. The sharp selloff ranks among the top 10 most damaging 35-day periods in the past 65 years. (more…)
Explanations for the Market Drop
Published October 19, 2018
Our post last week noted that the October selloff in stocks likely had drivers other than the oft-noted rise in interest rates as some of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as utilities, were holding up just fine. We also noted that the wave of geopolitical issues that seem to be ever-widening were unlikely to be a major cause of the selloff as investors were not pouring money into bonds, as they typically do during periods of angst. A recent note from Oppenheimer points to persistent and increasing weakness in non-U.S. economies as being the primary catalyst for the current stock market correction. (more…)