rising interest rates

Weekly Update

Government Debt Concerns … Yet Again

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Published May 30, 2025

 

We have been in business for almost 25 years now. Throughout that time, investors have consistently expressed concerns about the levels of U.S. government debt, with no real action taken by Congress or any Administration.

As the government wrestles with this year’s budget and the resulting increase in debt, the topic is once again in the news. To further ratchet up the intensity, Moody’s recently downgraded U.S. credit (the last major credit agency to do so). A disappointing treasury bond auction, both in the U.S. and in Japan (for their debt), created more concern. (more…)

Weekly Update

And a New Bull Market Arrives

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Published June 30, 2023

 

In a recent article we posited that the bear market was over. One of the reasons we say this is captured below in a series of charts. We will conclude with a Goldman Sachs outlook that is muted. But muted is not bearish. Things have changed in the market and investors have, in many cases, been caught off-guard as they typically are. (more…)

Weekly Update

Spiking Interest Rates Drive Housing Slowdown

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Published October 7, 2022

 

The market is obsessed with the impact of sharply rising interest rates. The brief below from Delta outlines some of the impacts of this sharp change in Fed policy and what investors are looking for to turn the markets around.

“The Federal Reserve is now projecting a terminal Fed Funds rate of about 4.6%. This is up from about 3.8% over the past month. On August 1, the 10-year US treasury was about 2.6%. Today, it is approaching 4.0% – a dramatic increase in a short time. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Storm Below the Market’s Surface

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Published October 8, 2021

Markets have clearly been gripped by uncertainty over the past month as interest rates have risen while concerns about government funding and China have called into question the trajectory of the economic recovery. Below is a portion of an excellent overview from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders on the noisy information facing investors these days. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

China Maybe Gets Some Mojo

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Published July 10, 2020

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The Wall Street Journal’s excellent daily blasts: The Daily Shot and Real-Time Economics provide a quick overview of economic and market trends and data. We were struck by a set of charts in one of this week’s blasts from those sources. Coinciding with the news that the Chinese government had notably expanded measures aimed at supporting the Chinese stock market, these charts could be read as a broader initiative by China to sort of take global market share while the U.S. pulls back on the global stage. We are very far from geopolitical experts, of course, but we are pretty good at seeing trends (being trend-followers!). This looks like a trend in the making to us (or continuation of a bigger trend, depending on your time frame). Herewith are a series of China-related charts. May be the start of something bigger and longer-lasting.

(more…)