price-earnings ratio

Weekly Update

Reminder: The Market Is All About Supply and Demand, Nothing Else


Published February 5, 2021

That’s right folks, any market: stocks, bonds, commodities, milk, diapers, et al. is ONLY about supply and demand. Sure, we try to make ourselves feel better by assigning formulas and trying to figure out some “fair value” based on historical data. But it’s a complete wild west guess, right? Take the price-earnings ratio, so frequently used to peg the stock market as being “expensive” or “cheap”. This ratio has run anywhere from 10 to 100, settling in a typical range of 15-20 or so. Still, it’s a bell(ish) curve with a very wide range of possible values. That typical range does not say anything about the investing or economic environment of the times. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Stock market seeks other drivers


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Published July 17, 2020

timingcube_cartoon071720

A few miscellaneous notes this week that describe the current market outlook, foggy though it be.  Starting at the highest level with the wide range of earnings projections for the S&P 500.  Currently, the S&P 500 index trades around 3200.  If we look at the chart below, we see a 2021 earnings per share for the S&P 500 range of $135-170.  At $135, the S&P 500 is trading at price-earnings ratio of 23, on the high end of “normal”.

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