Presidential election cycle

Weekly Update

Up and Down – The Waves of a Bear Market

Published September 23, 2022


There are thousands of ways to invest. We prefer to remove the emotional component and use mechanical models to drive our investing. Some others like to rely on seasonal cycle analysis. One of those cycles is the four-year presidential election cycle shown below. The second year of the presidential cycle tends to be the worst of the four years. The return historically has been flat through the first nine months of the second year. This year, we are well below that flat historical trend. But the presidential election cycle suggests we are nearing the best performance of the four years. The period from the midterm election to the following May tends to offer outstanding performance. That would be a substantial change in market tone from where we are in today’s market where caution and negative sentiment rule. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Sell in May, but Only Every Few Years

Published March 23, 2018


The theory of “sell in May and go away” is well-known in investment circles. Here is a summary of the theory from CNBC’s Bob Pisani:

It’s that time again: May. Springtime, and time to revisit that old adage — sell in May and go away.
I’ve written many times about this, probably the most famous of Wall Street saws, so I’ll keep this short. (more…)