pandemic

Weekly Update

The Drivers of Shelter Inflation

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Published July 1, 2022

Housing is a critical piece of the economy. Not only is a home the single largest investment most people make, but the industry built around housing – furniture, repair, mortgage finance, et al. – represents a major component of consumer spending. Many homeowners over the past year or two have seen the value of their house soar. That spike in prices has rippled through to higher rents, which is a significant component of reported inflation. Thus, the financials of the housing industry are very important. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Stock Market Is at a Critical Juncture

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Published February 25, 2022

 

This week’s acceleration of market turmoil had us reaching back into the bag for a little history. Below is a table of single-day declines in the S&P 500. First, note how clustered these selloffs are; all but one taking place around three major events – the global financial crisis, the pandemic, and 1987 market crash. (more…)

Weekly Update

This Weird Job Market

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Published December 31, 2021

We can think of few other aspects of life that have changed so dramatically from the pandemic as employment and the job market. Radiating outward from the changes in the job market, wages are the most critical component of inflation, a huge buzzword in 2021. If wages have been permanently kick-started into a regime of growth, then inflation will remain far more than a transitory influence in the economy and markets. (more…)

Weekly Update

Markets Reflect the Coronavirus Impact

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Published October 30, 2020

Stock markets this week gave up their October rally effort, sinking back to roughly where they began the month. The lack of a government stimulus package took away some of the wind in the market’s sails. European economic restrictions, seeking to limit a resurgence of the coronavirus, took away the rest of that wind. Investors chose to reduce risk. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The New ‘Real’ Economy

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Published May 15, 2020

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Many articles are being written trying to make sense of a stock market that has roared back from the depths while economic data continues to deliver abysmal news. Part of the explanation focuses on which parts of the stock market have actually rebounded most strongly. It has been the new digital economy stocks that have driven the rebound while the ‘old economy’ stocks have lagged. (more…)