NBER

Weekly Update

What if the Recession Has Already Happened?

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Published May 19, 2023

There is no shortage of commentary and hand-wringing about a coming recession. In the piece below, one Fidelity analyst posits that the recession may have already occurred. Here is Denise Chisholm’s analysis:

“Did we already have a hard landing? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn’t officially called a recession, but signs suggest that we may have already had a fairly bad one. One of the most consistent recession indicators has been a contraction in real wages (adjusted for inflation), which happened in every recession since 1962 except the 2020 COVID shutdown (chart hereunder). Real wages declined throughout 2022—falling more than they did during the Great Recession—as inflation outpaced wage growth. Real wage growth may have bottomed last fall; a rebound could provide a tailwind for the economy and the stock market. (more…)

Weekly Update

Not a “Real” Recession

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Published July 8, 2022

At some point, all the bad news gets priced into stocks. We will see if that has happened in the coming weeks when companies report their quarterly earnings. The bearish market case says that falling corporate earnings are the next shoe to drop. The bullish case points to a myriad of seasonal factors, such as mid-term election market history, to suggest that the worst is behind us in stocks. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Review of Economic Indicators

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Published April 1, 2022

 

This week saw a strong move in growth stocks with breakouts in small-cap growth, software, semiconductors, real estate and other beaten-down growth and cyclical areas. This is a positive development for the broader stock market as the rally expands its reach beyond the commodity and defensive leaders of the past few months. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

An overview of economic and market pros and cons

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Published June 7, 2018

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The summer heat has arrived in force here in Austin over the past couple of weeks.  Our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has also been hot, emerging from a three-month market correction to break out to new highs recently.  The commentary below from the team at Charles Schwab does a good job of outlining some of the major positives and negatives the market wrestles with these days.  We hope you find it informative.
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