Market correction

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

No, the Stock Market Does Not Predict Recessions


Published October 26, 2018

timingcube_cartoon102618

Below is a good post from Ben Carlson regarding the ability of the stock market to predict recessions. The data says the stock market is bad at such predictions, rising half or more of the time in a 3-6 month window ahead of the onset of a recession. So, if the stock market “looks ahead” by 6-9 months as we are often told it does, the market is no better than a coin flip in foreseeing recessions. It may not look ahead all that well is the point. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Large-cap stocks struggling


No Comments

Published April 20, 2018

timingcube_cartoon042018

The bullish case for stocks rests on surging corporate earnings.  The bearish case rests on fears of rising interest rates, uncertainty about trade policy, and a general hangover from a very strong 2017.  Early on in the quarterly earnings cycle, companies are providing the strong results.
(more…)