investor’s fallacy

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Fallacy of Thinking Things Will Change


Published January 31, 2020

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We found the following article from Nick Maggiuli’s blog Of Dollars and Data to be interesting and hope you will also:

“Assume I flip a coin 5 times and get the following result (let H = heads and T = tails):
HHHHH

What is the probability that my sixth flip is also a heads (H)? Assuming the coin is fair (equal likelihood of heads and tails), you already know that the answer is 50%. Because coin flips are an independent process, prior flips have no bearing on future flips. (more…)