Published October 4, 2024
Below we have a good overview from JP Morgan of the broad state of the U.S. economy and market action in the just-completed quarter.
“The U.S. economy appears to have maintained a solid growth pace over the summer, fueled by resilient consumer spending. At the same time, inflation continued on a path back toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while a rising unemployment rate sparked fears the labor market is cooling too quickly. (more…)
Published June 21, 2024
As we turn the corner into the second half of the year, we look at what some of the market’s leading investment houses see ahead. Here is Schwab’s mid-year outlook:
“As we move into the second half of 2024, economic and market expectations have increasingly diverged. Inflation appears to be moderating, but mixed signals on the strength of the labor market and other economic areas have made it hard for investors to gauge when the Federal Reserve might begin to cut short-term interest rates. Other major central banks are likely to cut their policy rates earlier than the U.S., although we still expect one to two Fed rate cuts this year. We believe inflation will continue to slow, but not in a straight line, potentially driving continued market volatility. (more…)
Published May 17, 2024
Below we catch up with our friends at Delta Research. Their recent comments have covered inflation, the Fed, stock buybacks, and the Misery Index. Enjoy! (more…)
Published December 29, 2023
Good day TimingCubers ! This last post of 2023 will highlight the conundrum investors typically face; the push-and-pull of competing narratives and outlooks. Will the market go up or down? As trend-followers, we believe there is something to markets having momentum. They will continue in their existing direction until something major changes to force the very emotional investing public to reverse course. (more…)
Published June 16, 2023
We routinely publish Schwab’s longer-term (6-12 month) outlooks as part of our weekly blog. Below is their mid-year outlook beginning with a brief review of what has transpired so far in 2023 compared to what they thought. Schwab has been very cautious on the stock market for many months. Read below to see if the recent lift in stock prices has shifted their view. (more…)
Published May 19, 2023
There is no shortage of commentary and hand-wringing about a coming recession. In the piece below, one Fidelity analyst posits that the recession may have already occurred. Here is Denise Chisholm’s analysis:
“Did we already have a hard landing? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn’t officially called a recession, but signs suggest that we may have already had a fairly bad one. One of the most consistent recession indicators has been a contraction in real wages (adjusted for inflation), which happened in every recession since 1962 except the 2020 COVID shutdown (chart hereunder). Real wages declined throughout 2022—falling more than they did during the Great Recession—as inflation outpaced wage growth. Real wage growth may have bottomed last fall; a rebound could provide a tailwind for the economy and the stock market. (more…)
Published November 11, 2022
For the first time in awhile the usual market suspects of inflation and the Fed’s assault on the stock and bond markets took a backseat for a couple of days. When interest rates rise sharply as they have this year, investors find out who was overly leveraged and caught without a seat in the market’s cakewalk. This week, we found out that cryptocurrency exchange FTX was the latest one without a seat. (more…)
Published August 26, 2022
With summer winding down, we await the post-Labor Day return of a fuller market trading pattern to provide better clues of investor thinking. In the meantime, the summary below from Delta offers a good overview of the current economic data.
Published August 19, 2022
It has been quite a long time since we have seen such disparity in the narratives flowing down Wall Street. How long and hard the Fed will tighten rates is one source of contention. But it’s not the biggest. That would belong to where corporate earnings are headed, which is sort of a Street barometer for whether or not the economy falls into a recession (how deep that recession is a third dimension discussion floating around also). (more…)
Published July 29, 2022
In a bull market, investors buy the rumor and sell the news, with the selling being typically light. In a bear market like we are in now, this week showed us it is the opposite. Investors fear the news, sell stocks down on the fear, buying them back when the news, though bad, is not quite as terrible as it could be. So it was with the Federal Reserve announcement this week. (more…)