Inflation

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Risks for the Market Year Ahead


Published January 17, 2020

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Below we reprint a recent article from Charles Schwab analyst Jeffrey Kleintop outlining the possible risks to the current market uptrend. While the comments focus on the risks, we can also read between the lines and understand what the market’s expectations are – which creates the risks, of course. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Market Needs Inflation


Published November 15, 2019

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We are shaped by the financial crises we experience. For those of us who lived through the sharp inflation hike of the 1970s, we are forever sensitive to inflation, looking behind every datapoint for evidence of the inflation beast lurking. Over the past decade, inflation has been remarkably steady with the inflation beast long ago tamed. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

An overview of economic and market pros and cons


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Published June 7, 2018

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The summer heat has arrived in force here in Austin over the past couple of weeks.  Our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has also been hot, emerging from a three-month market correction to break out to new highs recently.  The commentary below from the team at Charles Schwab does a good job of outlining some of the major positives and negatives the market wrestles with these days.  We hope you find it informative.
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Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Investors Begin Worrying About an Inverted Yield Curve … and Recession


Published January 12, 2018

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With the global economy firing on all cylinders it’s hard to believe investors would find anything to worry about. But they have. For years now investors have wondered when and how the era of near-zero interest rates would end. Are we now on the cusp of seeing how the backside of the Fed’s unprecedented monetary policy easing impacts markets? (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Late-Cycle Sectors Beginning to Shine


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Published January 5, 2018

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Over the past year, there have been numerous articles telling us that the U.S. economy is entering the “late-cycle” phase, a period of about 18 months characterized by rising inflation (and therefore rising interest rates), higher commodity prices, and positive though waning economic growth. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Where the Stock Market Might Be Headed Next


Published November 17, 2017

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We thought the outlook below from Delta Investments provided a good overview of the factors supporting the stock market. Enjoy!

Our 2018 S&P 500 Index outlook is up. If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.

The following ten factors support our 2018 bullish investment thesis: (more…)