Published May 15, 2026
For many investors, the recent bout of inflation is their first experience with the stubborn beast. The United States has been fortunate over the past three years that a booming AI trade has more than neutralized the negative stock market effects of inflation. (more…)
Published March 20, 2026
This week the stock market returned to its long-term 10-week trendline. It was the first visit to this trendline in about a year. (more…)
Published December 12, 2025
Over the coming three weeks we will offer Schwab’s outlook for the coming year. It’s a full document. So, we think cutting into more bite-sized pieces makes sense. Here’s the first section on the economy:
“This unique economic and market cycle is best defined using a couple of key letters: U and K. (more…)
Published March 7, 2025
For much of the past four years investors have focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fight against it. While the Fed only controls the very short-term interest rate, their words about potential future Fed moves affect interest rates much further out in time.
In December, the Fed surprised investors by pulling back on expectations for coming interest rate cuts. Inflation has stabilized albeit at levels that might be higher than the Fed would like. But over the past two weeks, interest rates have suddenly fallen sharply, appearing to diverge from the Fed-driven path. (more…)
Published January 17, 2025
While markets have been cautious over the past few weeks, our friends at Delta Research summarize how the tide might be turning. Here is what they see:
“Since reaching a low of about 3.6% in September, the 10-year treasury rate ran up to 4.8% this week. As the rate went higher, high stock valuations and economic growth assumptions were increasingly at risk. (more…)
Published December 20, 2024
As we approach year-end, the major banks and investment houses are publishing their outlooks for the coming year. Below is Schwab’s 2025 outlook. We routinely pass along commentary from Schwab. We have no opinion on their output other than recognizing its outsized influence on the broader investment public. Our models have no link to any information from a broker. We use price, volume, and related market data as our only inputs. Here’s what Schwab sees: (more…)
Published October 4, 2024
Below we have a good overview from JP Morgan of the broad state of the U.S. economy and market action in the just-completed quarter.
“The U.S. economy appears to have maintained a solid growth pace over the summer, fueled by resilient consumer spending. At the same time, inflation continued on a path back toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while a rising unemployment rate sparked fears the labor market is cooling too quickly. (more…)
Published June 21, 2024
As we turn the corner into the second half of the year, we look at what some of the market’s leading investment houses see ahead. Here is Schwab’s mid-year outlook:
“As we move into the second half of 2024, economic and market expectations have increasingly diverged. Inflation appears to be moderating, but mixed signals on the strength of the labor market and other economic areas have made it hard for investors to gauge when the Federal Reserve might begin to cut short-term interest rates. Other major central banks are likely to cut their policy rates earlier than the U.S., although we still expect one to two Fed rate cuts this year. We believe inflation will continue to slow, but not in a straight line, potentially driving continued market volatility. (more…)
Published May 17, 2024
Below we catch up with our friends at Delta Research. Their recent comments have covered inflation, the Fed, stock buybacks, and the Misery Index. Enjoy! (more…)
