Inflation

Weekly Update

The Nasdaq Rally “Whale”


Published September 11, 2020

The recent stock market pullback has thus far basically reversed the August surge. Our focused Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped to its 50-day moving average for the first time since the rally began in April. The rally in August (blue arrow below) has been, in part, attributed to a multi-billion $ options bet made by tech investor Softbank. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

China Maybe Gets Some Mojo


Published July 10, 2020

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The Wall Street Journal’s excellent daily blasts: The Daily Shot and Real-Time Economics provide a quick overview of economic and market trends and data. We were struck by a set of charts in one of this week’s blasts from those sources. Coinciding with the news that the Chinese government had notably expanded measures aimed at supporting the Chinese stock market, these charts could be read as a broader initiative by China to sort of take global market share while the U.S. pulls back on the global stage. We are very far from geopolitical experts, of course, but we are pretty good at seeing trends (being trend-followers!). This looks like a trend in the making to us (or continuation of a bigger trend, depending on your time frame). Herewith are a series of China-related charts. May be the start of something bigger and longer-lasting.

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Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Risks for the Market Year Ahead


Published January 17, 2020

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Below we reprint a recent article from Charles Schwab analyst Jeffrey Kleintop outlining the possible risks to the current market uptrend. While the comments focus on the risks, we can also read between the lines and understand what the market’s expectations are – which creates the risks, of course. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Market Needs Inflation


Published November 15, 2019

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We are shaped by the financial crises we experience. For those of us who lived through the sharp inflation hike of the 1970s, we are forever sensitive to inflation, looking behind every datapoint for evidence of the inflation beast lurking. Over the past decade, inflation has been remarkably steady with the inflation beast long ago tamed. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

An overview of economic and market pros and cons


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Published June 7, 2018

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The summer heat has arrived in force here in Austin over the past couple of weeks.  Our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has also been hot, emerging from a three-month market correction to break out to new highs recently.  The commentary below from the team at Charles Schwab does a good job of outlining some of the major positives and negatives the market wrestles with these days.  We hope you find it informative.
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Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A Wall of Worry Is Building


Published February 23, 2018

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A recent commentary from the folks at Schwab provides a good overview of where markets stand right now. We have pointed out in recent weekly blog posts the sharp rise in interest rates that has occurred since September. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Investors Begin Worrying About an Inverted Yield Curve … and Recession


Published January 12, 2018

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With the global economy firing on all cylinders it’s hard to believe investors would find anything to worry about. But they have. For years now investors have wondered when and how the era of near-zero interest rates would end. Are we now on the cusp of seeing how the backside of the Fed’s unprecedented monetary policy easing impacts markets? (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Late-Cycle Sectors Beginning to Shine


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Published January 5, 2018

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Over the past year, there have been numerous articles telling us that the U.S. economy is entering the “late-cycle” phase, a period of about 18 months characterized by rising inflation (and therefore rising interest rates), higher commodity prices, and positive though waning economic growth. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Where the Stock Market Might Be Headed Next


Published November 17, 2017

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We thought the outlook below from Delta Investments provided a good overview of the factors supporting the stock market. Enjoy!

Our 2018 S&P 500 Index outlook is up. If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.

The following ten factors support our 2018 bullish investment thesis: (more…)