Inflation

Weekly Update

Historical Data Suggests Further Volatility Ahead Before a Strong Recovery


Published January 28, 2022

 

This week we are reviewing some interesting data from a recent presentation made by CFRA. The three charts tell a possible story for how this year will play out. First, after a strong year in the market in 2021, we have seen stocks hit a wall, tumbling hard throughout January. This selloff following a strong period is common, at least in the short-term. (more…)

Weekly Update

Selloff in Growth Stocks Expands to Broad Market


Published January 21, 2022

 

Markets have struggled mightily so far in 2022 as looming Fed policy changes merge with Omicron-fueled slowdowns and Russia-Ukraine tensions to put investors on edge. Growth stocks, presumably more sensitive to rising interest rates, have stumbled the most. (more…)

Weekly Update

This Weird Job Market


Published December 31, 2021

We can think of few other aspects of life that have changed so dramatically from the pandemic as employment and the job market. Radiating outward from the changes in the job market, wages are the most critical component of inflation, a huge buzzword in 2021. If wages have been permanently kick-started into a regime of growth, then inflation will remain far more than a transitory influence in the economy and markets. (more…)

Weekly Update

Economic and Stock Market Outlook for 2022 – Part 1


Published December 3, 2021

Stock markets have come under pressure lately as the Fed begins withdrawing stimulus and a new Covid-19 variant hits investor confidence in the economic recovery. Over the remainder of the year, we will pass along Schwab’s 2022 outlook, breaking it into a few parts covering the economy and markets. Schwab, having acquired TD Ameritrade, is the biggest retail stock broker in the country. As such, their analysis and insights can have a substantial audience and potential impact on investors. (more…)

Uncategorized

The Stock Market’s Winning Streak Leads to Calls for a Pullback


Published August 20, 2021

The following content from MarketWatch highlights the reason why we are model-driven investors. It is all too easy to get caught up in speculation about what markets “should do” and let that drive our investment decisions. We find it far more productive for our money to row with the market’s price trend, recognizing that market prices move up as well as down, and allowing ourselves the flexibility to pursue gains regardless of market price direction.

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Weekly Update

A Labor Squeeze Could Be the Inflation Spark


Published May 7, 2021

The predominant narrative right now in the markets is that inflation will rise as economies reopen and recover. While it’s easy to find inflationary movements in the price of some goods like lumber, houses and food, the primary driver of overall inflation comes from rising wages. Pre-pandemic, wages had been stagnant for years. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Nasdaq Remains Range-Bound, for Now


Published November 6, 2020

 

We have noted multiple times recently that the post-election market is almost always a very good one; lots of December upside usually as investors breathe a collective sigh of relief that election uncertainty has passed and the country can get back to business. This time we have seen, perhaps, a bit of an early rush as stocks ripped higher on election day and kept on going from there. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Nasdaq Rally “Whale”


Published September 11, 2020

The recent stock market pullback has thus far basically reversed the August surge. Our focused Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped to its 50-day moving average for the first time since the rally began in April. The rally in August (blue arrow below) has been, in part, attributed to a multi-billion $ options bet made by tech investor Softbank. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

China Maybe Gets Some Mojo


Published July 10, 2020

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The Wall Street Journal’s excellent daily blasts: The Daily Shot and Real-Time Economics provide a quick overview of economic and market trends and data. We were struck by a set of charts in one of this week’s blasts from those sources. Coinciding with the news that the Chinese government had notably expanded measures aimed at supporting the Chinese stock market, these charts could be read as a broader initiative by China to sort of take global market share while the U.S. pulls back on the global stage. We are very far from geopolitical experts, of course, but we are pretty good at seeing trends (being trend-followers!). This looks like a trend in the making to us (or continuation of a bigger trend, depending on your time frame). Herewith are a series of China-related charts. May be the start of something bigger and longer-lasting.

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