Published October 16, 2026
It turns out the answer is sometimes yes, sometimes no. (more…)
Inflation
Inflation is a Thief
Published September 18, 2026
Inflation is the general increase in the prices of goods and services across an economy over time, which reduces the purchasing power of money. (more…)
A Record High for Diesel
Published September 11, 2026
While almost no one drives diesel-fueled passenger vehicles in the U.S. every person in America is impacted by the rising price of diesel fuel. Perhaps you have seen the recent news that diesel prices have hit an all-time high, rising to $6 per gallon. This is extraordinary given that a year ago, diesel was under $4 per gallon. (more…)
Inflation Remains a Problem
Published May 15, 2026
For many investors, the recent bout of inflation is their first experience with the stubborn beast. The United States has been fortunate over the past three years that a booming AI trade has more than neutralized the negative stock market effects of inflation. (more…)
Stocks Visit Their Long-Term Trendline
Published March 20, 2026
This week the stock market returned to its long-term 10-week trendline. It was the first visit to this trendline in about a year. (more…)
Schwab’s 2026 Outlook: The K Economy
Published December 12, 2025
Over the coming three weeks we will offer Schwab’s outlook for the coming year. It’s a full document. So, we think cutting into more bite-sized pieces makes sense. Here’s the first section on the economy:
“This unique economic and market cycle is best defined using a couple of key letters: U and K. (more…)
What’s Going On With Interest Rates?
Published March 7, 2025
For much of the past four years investors have focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fight against it. While the Fed only controls the very short-term interest rate, their words about potential future Fed moves affect interest rates much further out in time.
In December, the Fed surprised investors by pulling back on expectations for coming interest rate cuts. Inflation has stabilized albeit at levels that might be higher than the Fed would like. But over the past two weeks, interest rates have suddenly fallen sharply, appearing to diverge from the Fed-driven path. (more…)
A Bullish Scenario
Published January 17, 2025
While markets have been cautious over the past few weeks, our friends at Delta Research summarize how the tide might be turning. Here is what they see:
“Since reaching a low of about 3.6% in September, the 10-year treasury rate ran up to 4.8% this week. As the rate went higher, high stock valuations and economic growth assumptions were increasingly at risk. (more…)
2025 Outlook – Part 1
Published December 20, 2024
As we approach year-end, the major banks and investment houses are publishing their outlooks for the coming year. Below is Schwab’s 2025 outlook. We routinely pass along commentary from Schwab. We have no opinion on their output other than recognizing its outsized influence on the broader investment public. Our models have no link to any information from a broker. We use price, volume, and related market data as our only inputs. Here’s what Schwab sees: (more…)