Published January 5, 2024
We begin 2024 with a broad overview of the stock market, its cycles, and return averages as presented by the Visual Capitalist. The first chart looks at stock market returns over the past six decades, noting by the orange bars and dots bearish market periods with bullish periods in blue.
The box at the bottom notes that bullish periods tend to be quite long (51 months) punctuated by brief, sharp bearish spikes downward lasting 11 months, on average. (more…)
Published June 30, 2023
In a recent article we posited that the bear market was over. One of the reasons we say this is captured below in a series of charts. We will conclude with a Goldman Sachs outlook that is muted. But muted is not bearish. Things have changed in the market and investors have, in many cases, been caught off-guard as they typically are. (more…)
Published August 20, 2021
The following content from MarketWatch highlights the reason why we are model-driven investors. It is all too easy to get caught up in speculation about what markets “should do” and let that drive our investment decisions. We find it far more productive for our money to row with the market’s price trend, recognizing that market prices move up as well as down, and allowing ourselves the flexibility to pursue gains regardless of market price direction.
Published July 31, 2020
There has been a lot of attention recently about the sharp drop in the price of the U.S. dollar. This decline has sent gold and other commodity prices soaring. Driving this decline in the dollar is a quicker recovery in economies outside the U.S., last week’s coordinated stimulus action by the European Union (which bolsters the Euro), and the zero interest rate policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve for as long as the eye can see. To put this in context, until recently, the dollar enjoyed a very long run of strength as Europe and Japan struggled. (more…)
Published August 2, 2019
As earnings roll in for the quarter, we post an article from Josh Brown that highlights analysis done by David Kostin at Goldman Sachs discussing the outlook for earnings growth.