Published August 8, 2025
Our friends at Delta Research posted an amazing chart this week showing that huge AI spending by companies has contributed more to economic growth this quarter than falling consumer spending. We wouldn’t expect that to be sustainable. The question is whether consumer spending rebounds or not. (more…)
Published June 6, 2025
While stock market valuations are clearly on the high side and there is no shortage of economic angst in the air, there is one indicator that is foretelling strong stock market gains ahead. Consumer sentiment has been tanking since the pandemic hit in early 2020. After recovering in 2023, sentiment has soured once again with the economic uncertainty of 2025. Delta Research recently posted a chart of consumer sentiment noting that a very low consumer sentiment reading leads to buoyant stock gains over the ensuing twelve months. Fueling this move in stocks could be an economy that holds up better than anticipated while inflation remains steady, giving the Fed room to lower interest rates. (more…)
Published March 28, 2025
As Delta Research outlines below, whether the recent struggles in the stock market are just a typical pullback or something larger rests with what ultimately happens to the economy. The widely-followed GDPNow economic forecast shows the economy shrinking in the first quarter. The question is whether that weakness will continue into the middle part of the year. (more…)
Published August 11, 2023
Following up on last week’s article about why recession calls have been so wrong in 2023, we offer a look at what might be a better source of high-level economic forecasting. Our friends at Delta recently wrote about the success of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s “GDPNow” model. That analysis is below. Following the Delta review, we provide a link to the Atlanta Fed’s model, which is routinely updated, for those of you who have an interest in learning more about it. (more…)
Published April 12, 2019
Below is a recent market and economic commentary from the folks at Schwab. As with many of their comments this year, they remain quite cautious on the stock market despite its run higher. Here, they explain what they see that causes them some pause: (more…)