Published September 2, 2022
Since Fed Chair Powell’s comments a week ago markets have been off-kilter. The notion of a Fed shift to lowering interest rates in the first half of next year has been squashed, replaced by expectations that rates will remain flat at an elevated level for most of 2023. The bearish narrative is that come October corporate earnings reports will deal further evidence of a notable slowdown in the U.S. economy. Slowing economic growth combined with stubborn interest rate policy makes for an unhappy stock market. The bullish case points to very solid employment numbers and generally good consumer financial health with expectations that any recession will be brief and shallow. (more…)
