Fed Chair Powell

Weekly Update

Two Sector Charts Give Us Overall Market Clues

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Published September 2, 2022

 

Since Fed Chair Powell’s comments a week ago markets have been off-kilter. The notion of a Fed shift to lowering interest rates in the first half of next year has been squashed, replaced by expectations that rates will remain flat at an elevated level for most of 2023. The bearish narrative is that come October corporate earnings reports will deal further evidence of a notable slowdown in the U.S. economy. Slowing economic growth combined with stubborn interest rate policy makes for an unhappy stock market. The bullish case points to very solid employment numbers and generally good consumer financial health with expectations that any recession will be brief and shallow. (more…)

Weekly Update

Bulls Find Some Traction

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Published July 29, 2022

 

In a bull market, investors buy the rumor and sell the news, with the selling being typically light. In a bear market like we are in now, this week showed us it is the opposite. Investors fear the news, sell stocks down on the fear, buying them back when the news, though bad, is not quite as terrible as it could be. So it was with the Federal Reserve announcement this week. (more…)

Weekly Update

2020 – a Rollercoaster Ride Ends Well for the Stock Market

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Published January 1, 2021

 

Below is a good recap of the year in investing excerpted from the Wall Street Journal. Our model-driven, long-short approach to investing responded well, protecting us from the worst of the market selloff while participating well in the rebound. We appreciate you, our family of subscribers, and wish you a healthy and prosperous 2021! (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Recovery Trade Comes Undone

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Published June 12, 2020

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Maybe the bear market is, or will be, alive and well. This week’s market action reminded investors that we are in an economic recession, and that it has just begun. There are still 20 million people, at least, unemployed, and likely will be half that many unemployed for months to come. And the government support checks might be drying up in a few weeks. The torrid run in the previously lagging groups, like financials, energy, and small-caps gave up almost all of their two week party (all of June’s gains) in a mere two days. Investors were reminded that in a dicey market environment it pays to be careful. (more…)