election outcome

Weekly Update

Stocks are Looking Forward


Published October 16, 2020

The stock market has a pretty good track record for determining who will win a presidential election.  The indicator looks at the market return over the three months leading up to the election.  A positive return suggests a win for the incumbent.  The data below, going back to 1928, shows an 87% success rate for the stock market in picking the ultimate election victor.
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Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Risks for the Market Year Ahead


Published January 17, 2020

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Below we reprint a recent article from Charles Schwab analyst Jeffrey Kleintop outlining the possible risks to the current market uptrend. While the comments focus on the risks, we can also read between the lines and understand what the market’s expectations are – which creates the risks, of course. (more…)