Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

Weekly Update

Economic data versus the stock market


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Published May 12, 2017

TimingCube_cartoon051217There is a natural tendency for investors to believe that the stock market will follow economic trends.  What some people fail to realize, at least initially, is that investors are looking out into the future and the expected movement in the economy.  Only when an economic datapoint shows up that is at odds with that expected outlook do stocks react.  The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) seeks to measure how those datapoints are matching up to what has been expected.  (more…)