Published June 26, 2026
Just a brief note this week as the stock market continues a slow summer grind. While the action at the broad index level has been flat overall (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both sit roughly where they were seven weeks ago), the action underneath has been furious. There has been a serious rotation OUT of the Mag 7 stocks that have powered this market for so long. (more…)
Published May 10, 2024
Just before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), Emerging Markets went on one last tear ripping higher by +12% in October 2007. That move capped a near 5x rally of the group over a 5-year period as China embarked on a massive build out. The Emerging Markets ETF (symbol: EEM) closed that October 2007 at a price of $39.32 per share. That same ETF opened 2024 at $39.83 – virtually no gain whatsoever in sixteen YEARS!
In 2020 as markets raced higher despite Covid restrictions and dislocations, Emerging Markets looked like they had finally found a new rally. But, as has been the case repeatedly over the past decade and a half, it was all quickly undone.
Emerging Markets have historically been highly correlated with commodities and with the fortunes of Chinese stocks. China is now trading near its post-GFC lows with pessimism about the Chinese economy running rampant. (more…)
Published May 17, 2019
This week was a perfect example of the current market environment. Monday’s plunge in the stock market continued the market’s negative reaction to recent trade talk news, as talks with China looked to experience a serious setback. (more…)
Published October 19, 2018
Our post last week noted that the October selloff in stocks likely had drivers other than the oft-noted rise in interest rates as some of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as utilities, were holding up just fine. We also noted that the wave of geopolitical issues that seem to be ever-widening were unlikely to be a major cause of the selloff as investors were not pouring money into bonds, as they typically do during periods of angst. A recent note from Oppenheimer points to persistent and increasing weakness in non-U.S. economies as being the primary catalyst for the current stock market correction. (more…)