200-day Moving Average

Weekly Update

Market Finally Pulls Back


Published October 1, 2021

For the first time in a year, the stock market delivered a negative monthly return. We have written about the negative seasonality of September, which has proved out once again. October can be a dicey month as well, with wide swings in performance. (more…)

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High Valuations and Seasonal Trends Make September a Scary Month


Published August 27, 2021

We have written often in recent weeks about how extended the market seems to be. Some of this content has come from Schwab. Back in the late 1990s, Schwab notified clients more than once that the market’s valuation was excessive and to be careful. Similarly, they have been proactively warning this summer of higher-than-normal market valuations and a market ripe for some downside action. There are notable differences between now and the late 1990s. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Sector Rotation Adds New Fuel to Recovery Rally


Published May 29, 2020

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Bullish markets are characterized by sector rotation. There are always sectors that consistently lead the way. But investors can only push a single stock or sector’s valuation so high. To keep the bullish fires burning bright, they eventually have to find other sectors attractive enough to invest in. This week we saw a couple of powerful days of sector rotation. The stocks that had been beaten down the most suddenly became the stars of the show. The stocks that had been favored got sold off, at least for a few hours. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Battle for the Market’s Next Move Is Happening Now


Published May 4, 2018

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Frequent stock market participants pay close attention when the price of the stock market indexes approaches the 200-day moving average. This trendline is seen as defining whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend. With the proliferation of mechanical computer-driven trading, trading based on trendlines and other technical chart-based indicators has become quite prevalent. (more…)