Published September 28, 2018
We are far down the road of this bull market cycle. How much further this road goes is anyone’s guess. Nevertheless, we are struck by the mania investing stories of last year and this, namely, cryptocurrencies (2017’s mania), and marijuana stocks (2018’s mania). These stories are very similar to the internet “dot.com” stories of the late 1990s, it appears to us. (more…)
Published September 21, 2018
After first popping above 3% back in May, U.S. 10-year Treasury rates returned to that closely-watched level this week, clearing 3% for the second time. The first time rates eclipsed 3% the rally in rates lasted barely a week before investors poured back into bonds pushing yields downward. A push upward in both June and late July failed to clear 3%. Rates have moved quickly in the month of September from 2.85% to 3%+ in a straight shot. This week’s rally finally did the trick, blowing past 3% and setting the stage for perhaps a run to 4%. (more…)
Published September 14, 2018
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal talks about how the financial crisis bred fear. That fear has kept the economic recovery at a slow burn rate while risk-taking has largely been held in check. (more…)
Published September 7, 2018
It is said that stock markets climb a wall of worry. As concerns dissipate, investors feel more free to take risk and buy stocks. A sustainable market rally takes hold when the worries are replaced by a “Goldilocks” scenario where market participants view the near-term future as favorable for stock investing. They buy shares with little concern. The lack of concern reaches a point of complacency where investors are undervaluing potential risks. (more…)
Published August 31,2018
With the 10-year anniversary of the onset of the global financial crisis just weeks away, now is a good time to ask where the next global economic crisis might come from. To be clear: We’re not sounding any alarms here. We don’t think a crisis is imminent. But we do like to keep our eyes on the horizon.
Reforms to the global financial system in the wake of the 2008–2009 crisis mean the next crisis probably won’t look like the last one. So what will it look like? (more…)
Published August 24, 2018
In this week where the S&P 500 touched a new high, we thought it would be interesting to hear a more cautionary view. Below we reprint an excellent overview of the recent issues in Turkey (along with comments on the general economy and market) from the folks at Charles Schwab. (more…)
Published August 17, 2018
TimingCube’s timing was very fortunate. We started publishing our market-beating signals in the summer of 2001, a year or so after the bloom had been ripped off the rose of the dot.com market boom. Investors had enjoyed a nearly non-stop romp through the latter half of the 1990s, with the stock market more than doubling over a 5-year period. (more…)
Published August 10, 2018
While the overall picture for stocks remains decidedly positive, we were struck by a building wall of worry in the two article reprints below this week (both from reporters at Marketwatch.com). Of course, the wall of worry provides fuel for further stock price increases as the skeptics give in to the bulls. (more…)
Published August 3, 2018
Much is discussed about the potential for an inverted yield curve, a situation where short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term rates. The inverted yield curve has a good recent track record for predicting recessions as Chart 1 below shows. (more…)
Published July 27, 2018
Below is an interesting article by Nick Maggiulli pointing out that time, YOUR personal time – as in when you are alive, matters very much as to your life (and investing) experience. Imagine the difference between having your primary investing years occurring during the go-go days of the 1990s, retiring in 1999, turning over your hefty equity gains from the 1980s and 1990s into a heavily bond/income portfolio. The 600%+ return of the stock market from 1984-1999 would have delivered a nice retirement package. If you were only five years younger, however, your retirement package would be fully HALF of the prior example as your primary investing years would have spanned the dot-com market crash. (more…)
