Published August 9, 2019
This week’s shocking currency move by China brought currencies and their management into the spotlight. The Chinese lowered their currency “peg” to a surprisingly low number as a retaliatory move in the trade skirmish with the Trump Administration.
Published August 2, 2019
As earnings roll in for the quarter, we post an article from Josh Brown that highlights analysis done by David Kostin at Goldman Sachs discussing the outlook for earnings growth.
Published July 26, 2019
As we’ve noted many times before, the stock and bond markets since the financial crisis have been driven for the most part by the policies of the world’s central banks. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States (the “Fed”) and the European Central Bank (“ECB”), have been very sensitive to markets and have clearly sought to directly influence them. There is no question they have been successful in this task. Simply look back to December when U.S. markets were struggling.
Published July 19, 2019
Below is a survey of markets through a series of charts with the idea being a quick scan to highlight the recent new highs, and how close other market indexes are to joining in those highs. The run higher in stocks has been largely propelled by optimism over a new round of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with investors preferring to take an optimistic view that the cuts in rates will avert a possible recession.
Published July 12, 2019
The vast majority of investment advisors and brokers preach the wonders of buy-and-hold. It is industry doctrine and much print is devoted to convincing clients that buy-and-hold is the only rational approach to investing. As trend-timers we have largely rejected the buy-and-hold mantra of the investment industry. But why do we reject it?
Published July 5, 2019
As most investment newsletters we do spend a lot of time on the markets and what affects them, on technical indicators and investment vehicles. Another topic we visit fairly frequently in this column is the emotional side of investing which we judge to be just as critical for success. A long-term wealth building program must by definition be emotionally sustainable.
Published June 28, 2019
While we seek cooler places to escape the hot Texas summer, we read Schwab’s latest examination of markets and economies printed below. In the coming couple of weeks, we will reach into our archives and reprint a couple of articles discussing our overall investment approach and why we recommend using TimingCube, FP Research, and other systems that proactively protect our wealth. Herewith is Schwab’s take on the markets: (more…)
Published June 21, 2019
This week, we offer not a single particular point, but instead a couple of market observations. (more…)
Published June 14, 2019
Timeframe matters when we are analyzing markets. While we might hear that stocks are in the midst of a strong rally, a look at the broader stock market over a wider timeframe says that most stocks are treading water.
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Published June 7, 2019
After struggling for the month of May, this week the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) accelerated its momentum downward and took a decidedly bearish turn. The stock market trades on perceptions for the future health of the economy and corporate earnings. Those perceptions have been skewed negative by the battles in trade. However, the stock market is beginning to get more and more data suggesting that weakness ahead is more than just a result of a change in perception. (more…)
