Author: fdacic

Weekly Update

An Overview of the Economy and Markets


Published May 28, 2021

This week we catch up with the folks at Schwab who provide a wide-ranging analysis on markets and the economy. Here is their latest work:

“As we move into the summer, the pace of economic growth remains robust, notwithstanding a weak April jobs report. Gross domestic product (GDP), although a lagging indicator, grew at an annualized quarter over quarter rate of 6.4% in the first quarter. That undercut economists’ consensus estimates slightly, but much of the drag was due to inventories—consumption was quite strong, growing at a 10.7% rate. (more…)

Weekly Update

Markets Churn as Investors Look For What Comes Next


Published May 21, 2021

Taking a step back this week to consider the broad market and the substantial changes that have been going on under the surface.  At surface level, the broad market S&P 500 remains close to its all-time highs while our favored Nasdaq 100 index, heavy with tech and consumer stocks, has been choppy over the past four months.
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Weekly Update

Uncertainty in the Market


Published May 14, 2021

 

The stock market continues to hold on through intermittent bouts of selling. Corporate earnings have been record-setting in their growth from year-ago levels, severely depressed though they were. Despite outrageously good earnings for the top growth stocks in the Nasdaq, investors continue to shift money to cyclical value sectors like energy, finance, materials. The lackluster response to the hotshot earnings has led to some heavy down days in the market recently. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Labor Squeeze Could Be the Inflation Spark


Published May 7, 2021

The predominant narrative right now in the markets is that inflation will rise as economies reopen and recover. While it’s easy to find inflationary movements in the price of some goods like lumber, houses and food, the primary driver of overall inflation comes from rising wages. Pre-pandemic, wages had been stagnant for years. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Roaring Economic Recovery


Published April 30, 2021

Below is a smattering of data points on the state of the reopening economy. These tidbits come from the always informative weekly roundup provided by Blaine Rollins at Hamilton Lane. We hope you find them as informative as we do. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Housing Boom Has Just Begun


Published April 23, 2021

Some long-term investment models say that we have just begun a new secular bull market. A secular bull market is one with years of rising stock values ahead. While stock valuations currently seem quite high, rising and recovering corporate earnings will help bring those valuations somewhat back down to a more normal range. One factor behind the longer-term market optimism is the shifting demographics at play in the U.S. (more…)

Weekly Update

Access Defines Opportunity


Published April 16, 2021

 

A couple of investment stories have piqued our interest recently. We wanted to comment on them to perhaps provide some perspective on these events.

We know that cheap money, while generally good for jumpstarting the economy, eventually breeds all kinds of excesses. Often those excesses show up as one-off, seemingly random events which, when taken together, form a picture of a more serious issue. Such was the case in the summer of 2007 as two hedge funds at investment bank Bear Stearns were suddenly shut down. (more…)

Weekly Update

Volatility Drop Usually a Positive Signal


Published April 9, 2021

The past few days have marked an important milestone in the market’s recovery. The volatility index (VIX) measuring the relative “fear” of investors has dropped below its key reference line as the chart below shows. Fear has subsided and the market has returned to normal levels. (more…)

Weekly Update

April Often Shines on the Q


Published April 2, 2021

This week’s market action reminds us that April is often a favorable month for investors, particularly for tech/consumer stocks. This week, those stocks look to have begun a rebound from their March rest period. Over the past 15 years, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has posted a gain 80% of the time in April, making it the second most reliably strong month for this index. (more…)